Minimum Temperature In China Response To The Warming Hiatus

Based on homogeneity-adjusted temperature data of meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2014, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CMIP5 climate model data, then we analyzed the fact of minimum temperature over China response to the global warming hiatus and influence mechanism using climatic statistics methods,the main results of this study can be as follows.1) In accelerated warming period, minimum temperature in four seasons show increasing trend in most area of China, but in warming hiatus period, minimum temperature in winter show an extensive decreasing trend, and in spring present a regional downward trend, but minimum temperature show an extensive upward trend in summer and autumn in China area. In addition, there is a negative seventy-five percent contribution to warming in more area during winter compare to other three seasons, indicating that winter is the most important season to warming hiatus. In the last few years, the winter minimum temperature may enter a new period (hiatus period). Minimum temperature in hiatus period is higher than that of cold period but lower than that of warm period due to the influence of warming trend. Meanwhile, low, middle and high level circulations in three periods show obvious interdecadal differences.2) We applied eight CMIP5 model weighting ensembles to forecast the duration of hiatus period of minimum temperature for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We found that the duration of hiatus period in the three emission scenarios are all last until 2020s, and minimum temperature trend in hiatus period is higher than that of cold period, but lower than that of warm period. In addition, its trend in high emission scenarios is much higher than low and middle emission scenarios.3) The phenomenon of hiatus of minimum temperature in winter of China area,is mainly caused by cooling effect of natural variability, and PDO play a leading role in it, approximately occupy forty present contribution of natural variability. The contribution of PDO to temperature present an obvious interdecadal change, which provide a negative contribution to warming, and negative contribution gradually increase to exceed fifty percent. Interdecadal change of Pacific SST regulate the change of atmospheric circulation system, when PDO warm (cold) phase, there is obvious wave action flux and stable wave train from north Pacific to East Asia land(East Asia land to north Pacific), and Siberian high, East Asia trough and radial wind are weakening(strengthening), but zonal wind is strengthening (weakening). These system mutually configurate to affect the interdecadal change of East Asian Winter Monsoon, and then impact the interdecadal change of minimum temperature of China area.