| Global climate change has already been one of the most important factors threatening global biodiversity.Birds are particularly sensitive to the climate change.We aimed to clarify the distribution area of birds’ potential habitat with climate change,and identify the Priority Protection Areas(PPAs)and protection gaps of birds,and propose the advice to enhance the planning,protect policy formulation and effective management of the protected areas systems,and to promote effective conservation of biodiversity.In this study,we selected 28 rare bird species in the Great Xing’an Mountains.We selected key environmental variables such as climate,topography and vegetation type based on Pearson correlation and Jackknife analysis,and modeled the potential distribution of 28 bird species using MaxEnt model with the current and the future climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).We identified the PPAs and the target PPAs by Zonation and ArcGIS software.The results showed that:(1)With the current climate condition,the suitable habitats of these species were mainly distributed in the central,northwest and southeast part of the Great Xing’an Mountains,especially in Hanma,Wuma and Huzhong Nature Reserves;(2)With RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,the suitable habitats of 23 bird species would decrease,and the highly suitable habitats of these species would also decrease,including five waders,Grus monacha,Grus japonensis,Grus vipio,Grus grus,Anthropoides virgo,four swimming bird species,Cygnus cygnus,Cygnus columbianus,Numenius borealis,Aix galericulata,two terrestrial bird species,Lyrurus tetrix,Tetrao parvirostris and 12 migratory raptors such as Asio otus,Bubo scandiacus,Buteo lagopus,Accipitergentilis;(3)The suitable habitats reduction rete of waders and swimming birds species would be higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 scenarios compare to the current climate condition.The reduction rates for waders and swimming bird species were 72.23-100.00%and 4.19-35.09%under the RCP8.5 climate scenario,70.26-100.00%and 3.17-28.66%under the RCP4.5 climate scenario,respectively;(4)With the current and the future climate change scenarios,the PPAs with higher protection rank of these species were mainly distributed in the northwest,southeast and west-central part of the Great Xing’an Mountains.In the future climate change scenarios,the PPAs for rare birds would become more concentrated in the central part of the Great Xing’an Mountains;(5)With the current climate condition,26.67%of the target PPAs are conserved by protected areas(PAs).The protection gaps are mainly distributed in the Ergun,the west of Mohe County,the central and north of Genhe,the northeast of Yakeshi,the southwest of Huma County,the south of Oroqen Autonomous Banner,and the Arxan.We propose to build new PAs in the northwest and central part of the Great Xing’an Mountains,and expand the current PAs in the southeast and south to provide a strong guarantee for the effective protection of rare bird species. |
