Analysis Of The Influence Of Meteorological Factors On The Incidence Of Cardiovascular And Cerebrovascular Diseases

It has been started since 1960 s which the study on the influence of meteorological factors on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases(CCD).It has been demonstrated that the impact of climate and air quality on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is obvious and complex.In the current study,some researchers used time series analysis to study the impact of special climate or air pollution factors on CCD,others used generalized additive model to explore the nonlinear relationship between multivariate meteorological factors and CCD.In this paper,we had demonstrated that there exist a linear relationship between meteorological factors and visits of CCD in the study area,then we considered the uniqueness and sparsity of Lasso solution and realistic significance,Log-linear Regression Model based on Lasso was used.Firstly,the Log-linear Regression Model basede on Lasso was used to select the most correlational five factors from massive climatic and air variables to describe the fluctuation of visits of CCD.Secondly,we found the relationship between the present value of time series and their own historical data,and the first-order autoregressive model of time series was used to predict the general trend of the time series.Finally,although we considered the past visits data of CCD and meteorological factors as covariates,the Model obtained the same results of meteorological factors.This results confirmed the stability and accuracy of Lasso method in our case.Meanwhile,the results of regression could better depict the fluctuation of the real value.