An Empirical Study On The Forecast Of Economic Growth Of Listed Companies' Accounting Earnings

Accounting earnings have always been important data in financial statements,and accounting information users will refer to this important indicator when making analytical decisions.Accounting earnings information can convey many signals about the company's future business conditions,and to a certain extent alleviate the problem of accounting information asymmetry.Therefore,it has been widely concerned by financial information users.In the field of accounting,the research on the information content of accounting earnings is superficial.It not only studies the impact of the enterprise level on the management and management decision of the enterprise by analyzing its own accounting surplus,but also begins to explore the aggregated enterprise accounting earnings information can help the macroeconomic decision-making.As we all know,enterprises are an important part of the national economy.The continuous development of enterprises has created economic growth,and economic operation as an external environment for enterprise development has also had an inevitable impact on the production and operation of enterprises.Therefore,it can be explained that enterprises and the macro economy has a linkage effect,and the company's surplus is also related to the macro economy.The company's earnings information has information content,not only in its ability to convey corporate value to the capital market,but also in its predictive value of the rest of the information.Whether the accounting surplus has macroscopic forecast value and what factors affect the correlation between accounting earnings and future economic growth are topics worthy of analysis and analysis.Therefore,this paper uses the combination of normative research and empirical research to analyze the relationship between the aggregated accounting earnings of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies and the future GDP growth rate from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2018,and explore the relationship between the two and explore Factors that influence this relationship.The results of theoretical analysis and empirical research show that the aggregated accounting earnings of listed companies are significantly positively correlated with the GDP growth rate in the next four quarters,and have the ability to predict future economic growth,and this forecasting ability will gradually weaken over time.Although there is still a significant positive correlation in the fourth quarter of the future,the degree of interpretation of the model has been greatly reduced.Subsequent research found that the industry in which the company is located is more relevant to macroeconomic fluctuations and more sensitive to future macroeconomics,their aggregated accounting surplus of these enterprises can better predict future economic growth.The correlation between industry and macroeconomic fluctuations is weak,and it is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations.The aggregated accounting earnings will also predict weaker future economic growth.Moreover,accounting conservatism will also have an impact on the macro forecasting ability of the aggregated accounting surplus.This is because under the principle of robustness,the management and financial personnel of the company will adopt different treatment methods for the expected gains and losses of the enterprise.Measurements and confirmations will be made in a timely manner,but the returns will not be confirmed.At this time,they will have a certain amount of private information about the future economic situation and the corresponding professional judgments that they have received.In turn,it has an impact on the correlation between accounting earnings and future economic growth.In addition,the quality of accounting information is different and the information content will vary.In particular,earnings with higher levels of cash protection are more reliable and can better predict future economic growth.From the perspective of the system can regulate the quality of information,the reform of the 2007 accounting standards can also improve the quality of accounting information,thereby improving the macro forecasting ability of accounting earnings.