Impact Of Climate Change On Rice Production In China: Temporal Evolution, Spatial Heterogeneity And Suggestions

Climate change,characterized by global warming,has become one of the most important environmental issues in the world today.In the past half century or so,extreme global climatic events have occurred frequently,which has caused catastrophic effects on the human ecosystem and social economy,and has aroused widespread concern in the international community.Agriculture is the area that is most affected,most sensitive and vulnerable to climate change.Climate change directly affects the natural conditions of light,temperature,precipitation,etc.,which increase the instability of food production.China is a large agricultural country.Safeguarding our country's agricultural production and food security is a top priority for governing the country and the country.As one of China's three major staple foods,rice has shown an extremely unstable production trend in recent years.From 1997 to 2004,China's paddy output fell for seven consecutive years,from 2007.348 million tons to 179.087 million tons,a drop of 12%;from 2004 to 2015,although the overall rice production achieved a “twelve consecutive increase”,the rate of increase in production was different.Decrease in degree.The Chinese government has always attached importance to the improvement of food security support capabilities.The 13 th Five-Year Plan clearly stated that it is necessary to “ensure that grain is basically self-sufficient and rations are absolutely safe”.General Secretary Xi Jinping also pointed out that "the Chinese people's rice bowl should be firmly in their hands." In this context,to explore the impact of climate change on food production,China's food security,and adjustment of agricultural development strategy will undoubtedly have important practical significance.Many scholars have conducted a lot of research on the impact of climate change on food production and have also achieved some results.The consensus reached in the academic community is that climate change will have a certain impact on food production,but “what exactly is the negative effect?” There are non-linear effects?” “What is the difference in the degree of influence of different varieties of food crops?” “Are there regional differences?” and a series of other issues,academic circles are still controversial because of the differences in research subjects and research objects.Based on the above background and issues,this study takes the impact of climate change on rice yield in China as the research object.First,the relevant concepts are defined and the research content of this paper is determined;then the research progress of domestic and international climate change and related theories are combed;Use descriptive statistics and econometric models for empirical research.In the empirical part,firstly,the weather data of precipitation,sunshine duration,and temperature from 1978 to 2015 and the input-output data of rice,early rice,middle rice,one-season late rice,and double-season late rice were statistically analyzed in two dimensions: temporal evolution and spatial difference.Explain its changing characteristics and development trends;then,based on the CD model,introduce climate variables into the model and construct a new “economic-climate” model to quantitatively analyze the impact of climate change on rice yield.Finally,according to the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from the perspectives of “adaptation” and “mitigation”.