Research On The Influencing Factors Of China's Automobile Sales Based On The Improved Weighting Method And VAR Model

In recent years,the rapid development of automobile industry has led the rapid development of China's economy,and car sales have also become the focus of social concern,and a series of social and economic problems,such as disequilibrium of social allocation resources and improper distribution of industrial structure,have also been caused.Although the state has also formulated some regulatory programs,but the effect is not good.Therefore,exploring factors that affect vehicle sales can effectively take measures to control the increase or decrease of vehicle sales,which has important practical value.On the basis of the research on the influencing factors of automobile sales at home and abroad,this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the economic and social factors,and selects the gross domestic product,the consumer price index,the civil automobile ownership,the road mileage,the output of steel,the total consumption of gasoline and so on.According to the relevant data of each factor from 1980 to 2016,the ranking of the three indexes is determined by the coefficient of variation,the complex correlation coefficient method and the Improved empowerment method.Then,the sorting of the improved entropy weight method is more reasonable by the case analysis.It is found that the effects of gross domestic product,percapita disposable income of urban residents,civil automobile ownership,road mileage,steel production and total consumption of gasoline on car sales are greater than the factors such as the consumer price index and the average exchange rate of the US dollars against the RMB.In order to further study the impact mechanism of automobile sales,a vector autoregressive model VAR is constructed by selecting the higher correlation degree and the first six factors.The empirical study shows that there is a balanced and long period relationship between these variables and car sales.The impact of gross domestic product,resident disposable income,steel output and road mileage on car sales is positive.However,the contribution rate of car sales to its own volatility is decreasing over time,although it is in the process of decreasing,but it is far greater than the contribution of other factors to car sales.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical results,based on the analysis of economic structure adjustment and policy,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations.