Drought Risk Assessment And Prediction Of Summer Maize In The Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Drought is a major natural disaster in the world,which has a serious impact on people's life,especially in agriculture,which seriously restricts the development of the local economy.Huang Huai Hai area is an important food production area in China.The trend of climate warming will make the crops in the region more severely affected by drought.Therefore,drought risk assessment for summer corn in one of the main grain crops is of great practical significance.This paper is based on SPEI drought index,combined with mathematical modeling,socio economic data statistics and natural disaster risk assessment.Describes the drought in the area,and according to the principle of drought disaster index selection,the risk assessment system is established from 4 aspects:hazard factor,exposure degree of disaster bearing body,vulnerability of disaster environment and ability to prevent and reduce disaster.Risk assessment of drought disaster in the study area.Finally,according to the future climate scenario data,the SPEI index in the Huang Huai sea region is calculated,and its future drought characteristics are obtained,and the drought risk is estimated.The results show that:1.The monthly scale SPEI index is applicable in Huang Huai Hai area.2.The frequency of drought in Shandong province has a slight rising trend from 1960 to 2015.Drought disasters are common.3.The rise of drought in Huanghuaihai region is not significant than the occurrence times.In general,the change of drought decreased from 60s to 70s and then increased until 90s reached its peak and then decreased again.4.The characteristics of the spatial distribution of drought in the Huanghuaihai region:the frequency of mild drought is higher in eastern Shandong,the large part of Jiangsu,the southwest of Anhui and the northwest of Hebei.In addition to the lower frequency of the northern Hebei Province,eastern Shandong,Anhui and southern Jiangsu,the frequency of the other regions is higher;The frequency of severe drought is very serious.In addition to the south of Henan to the west of Shandong to the west of Shandong to the east of Jiangsu,the frequency of the remaining regions is higher;The frequency of extreme drought is generally low.5.The risk distribution of drought disaster in summer is decreasing from north to south.The low risk area is more than half of the total area,mainly in the south of the study area.6.In the future climate scenario,the drought stations in Shandong have a trend to increase over time,reaching a peak in 2080 and falling from 2090.7.The risk prediction of drought disaster in the next 50 years in the Huanghuaihai region is over 50%of the whole research area,and the sub low risk area is a slender area in the north of Hebei,south of Henan province and south of Shandong Province,and the middle risk area is mainly located in the Northwest of Henan Province,A small area in the south of Hebei and the eastern part of Shandong province;the sub high risk area is only between 35 degrees north latitude and 38.5 degrees north latitude;the high risk area is mainly distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the Huanghuai sea.