Research On Decision-making Analysis Technology Of Rural Seismic And Disaster Prevention Based On GIS

The study of earthquake disasters in the vast rural areas is a useful exploration of coordinating urban and rural development,promoting rural security,and sustainable development.Affected by the level of productivity development and the urban-rural dual economic and social structure system,cities have always been the gathering place of economic wealth,population,construction,and secondary and tertiary industries.The focus of research on earthquake disasters is naturally concentrated in urban areas,and there are relatively few studies on rural earthquake disasters.The difference between urban and rural areas is very large,and the rural earthquake disaster is significantly different from that of the city.For most of the current rural areas,the residential houses are mainly self-built by the villagers.The construction quality is poor and the anti-seismic performance is not considered.While the urban buildings are designed through the building structure,and the seismic performance is higher than the urban earthquake fortification intensity.If the corresponding seismic research and seismic measures are not done well,even if the earthquake with small magnitude and low intensity,the loss will be very serious for the rural areas.Based on the literature on seismic disaster prevention at home and abroad,this article summarizes the relevant theories and methods.First,according to the needs of the research,the fifth generation of China's seismic zoning map,the distribution of active fault zones,the historical earthquake catalogue,the census,the type of rural housing and building structure,the road network,the hospital and the administration are collected.Based on Geodatabase model,a database of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention in rural areas of Shandong is established.Based on this,firstly,this paper uses time series analysis and spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of earthquake disasters in Shandong Province and the spatial relationship between historical earthquake sites and active tectonic fault zones.Then,based on the three criteria of risk of hazards,vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and capability of earthquake relief,the basic intensity of earthquakes,the peak acceleration of ground motions,the proportion of towns and towns occupied by the length of active faults,the nuclear density of seismic activity,the density of township populations,proportion of the population under the age of 14,the proportion of the population over the age of 64,the total population of the township,the proportion of the township and town houses in the masonry structure,the distance from the township center to the county,the distance from the township center to the city center,and the density of the township road network were selected.Based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method,the weights of each index were determined,and a seismic hazard risk assessment model was constructed to analyze the risk of rural earthquakes in Shandong Province.Based on this research,from the perspective of improving residents' accessibility to medical services and enhancing regional capabilities for earthquake resistance,the grid-weighted cost-distance method was applied to the spatial accessibility of medical care for rural residents to secondary hospitals above grade two.According to calculations,it is found that there is a spatial difference in the cost of medical treatment for rural residents.Based on this,considering the earthquake risk,traffic conditions,the existing two levels of hospital distribution,population distribution and other factors,the multi criteria decision-making model is constructed to study the optimal location of the comprehensive hospitals over two levels in Shandong province.The results of the study are as follows:(1)The 1980 s was a period of significant earthquake activity in Shandong Province,during which a Heze 6.2 earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred;in the 1990 s,a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred in Cangshan(now Lanling County),after which the seismic activity was relatively stable,and the seismicity began to enter the stage of fluctuation after 2010.(2)The analysis of the nuclear density of 2393 earthquakes during 1969-2017 revealed that the occurrence of high-density earthquakes occurred in Yantai-Weihai,western Heze,central and eastern Jining,and Ganxian-Minnan.(3)The spatial autocorrelation analysis of the intensity of historical seismic activity yielded a global Moran's I of 0.2279,a significance level of ?=0.05,a Z value of15.89,and not falling within the confidence interval [-1.96,1.96],indicating the intensity of seismic activity(magnitude).Showing significant spatial autocorrelation.According to local spatial autocorrelation analysis of earthquake magnitudes,high-accumulation earthquakes are mainly distributed at the intersection of the Liaokao seismic belt,Huimin-Zhucheng and Rucheng-Qianjiang seismic belts,with relatively scattered distribution;high and low concentrations are mainly distributed in the southern part of Weihai City,Rizhao The cities of Juxian County and Luzhongshan District are low-height agglomeration mainly distributed in Heze City;the low-low agglomerations are mainly distributed in Rizhao-Linyi Region,Luzhong Mountain,Weihai South,and northern Yantai City.(4)In the spatial distribution of the comprehensive index of earthquake disaster risk,the risk index of most townships is low and low.A total of 129 townships with high and high risk indices accounted for 10.82% of the total.They are mainly distributed at the junction of Rizhao-Linyi,some townships in Weifang,Dezhou and western Heze.Most of these townships are located near the active fault zone,have a large population,have a high population density and a high proportion of old and young populations,and have a low ratio of house brick-concrete structure and road network density.(5)The measurement of the accessibility of rural residents' medical space found that the cost of the average medical time for each village administrative village was 53minutes;the time cost was 407 in 30 minutes,755 in 30~60 minutes,450 in 60~90minutes,155 in 90~120 minutes,and 44 in more than 120 minutes for medical time.These towns and villages are located in areas far away from the center of the city,with complex topography and relatively inconvenient traffic conditions.(6)Using multi-criteria decision-making analysis,it is concluded that newly built Grade2 or higher hospitals are more suitable for selection at the junction of Weifang-Qingdao,Jinan-Dongying,Dezhou-Liaocheng,and Jining-Zaozhuang.These areas are located at the junctions of cities and are densely populated.There is a large demand for residents to seek medical treatment.At the same time,these areas are far away from earthquakes and have better traffic conditions.It is suggested that these areas should strengthen the cooperation between cities and cities,properly build a batch of general hospitals or upgrade existing township hospitals,and meet the hardware configuration standards and service capabilities of at least Grade II general hospitals,so as to improve residents' Medical space accessibility.