Water Supply And Demand Forecast Of Beijing

Water is not only the material for survival of all life in the natural world,but also an indispensable and important resource for social development.Due to the uneven distribution of water resources in space and time,the imbalance in the development and utilization of water resources with the development of the national economy,and the deterioration of water quality caused by water pollution,it has brought water supply and demand problems to many regions in the world.Beijing is a heavily water-scarce city.Scientific and reasonable forecasting of Beijing's future supply and demand volumes is the basis and prerequisite for the optimal allocation of urban water resources.The main research issue in this paper is to address the shortage of water resources in Beijing.Based on the previous research,the water supply and demand in Beijing is analyzed and forecasted.Water demand forecasting is the focus of this paper.The paper firstly uses 3 single prediction methods,namely multiple regression analysis,GM(1,1)and support vector machine,to fit the known water data to get the fitting accuracy of each single model,and then to solve the sum of square errors of the prediction error.The weight coefficient is calculated for the smallest objective function,and a suitable water demand combined forecasting model is established using the weighted average method.This model not only has a good fit,but also is relatively stable,so it can provide reasonable theoretical support for the study of water demand in Beijing.Based on the basic situation of Beijing's natural,socio-economic and water resources,the current situation of water resources development and utilization,the water supply structure,and the water demand structure in Beijing are analyzed.The year 2018-2020 is the horizontal year,and the surface water and groundwater in Beijing are analyzed.The analysis of water volume changes,and the study of the water supply volume of South-to-North Water Transfer and reclaimed water,first classify the available water volume,predict the total water supply in Beijing,and finally predict that the maximum available water volume in Beijing from 2018 to 2020 is 3.9 billion m3;At the same time,through the study of the law of water demand in Beijing,we use the weighted combination forecasting model established in this paper to predict the total water demand,and we estimate that the water demand in Beijing from 2018 to 2020 will be 3.996 billion m3,4.055 billion m3 and 4.209 billion m3 respectively.The proportion of domestic water demand is increasing,and the main factors affecting the water demand are per capita disposable income,regional GDP and urban green coverage.Based on the forecast data of water supply and demand,the forecasting and analysis of the balance of supply and demand in each horizontal year shows that in the case of maximum water availability,and there will be a water shortage of 309 million m3 in 2020.In the final part of the article,based on the analysis of the supply and demand balance trend and strategy of Beijing's water resources,combined with the status quo of Beijing's water resources,it further proposes reasonable tactical suggestions to improve the lack of water resources and the imbalance between supply and demand in Beijing,such as universal water-saving appliances,increase the efficiency of agricultural irrigation,adjust the price of water,increase the capacity of sewage treatment,and increase the use of recycled water.