A Study On Vulnerability Evaluation And Regionalization Of Maize Drought Disaster On CERES-Maize Model In Western Jilin Province

Natural Disaster Risk is the possibility of disaster losses,depending on the hazard,vulnerability,exposure,and emergency response&recovery capability.Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage,which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss estimation and disaster,but also is linked to the bridge of hazard and disaster.This study collected information on meteorology,soil,land use,field management data and other information of the research area.We use the method of vulnerability curve and drought vulnerability assessment model to evaluate the maize drought vulnerability by CERES-Maize model.When use the method of vulnerability curve,The drought disaster magnitude of seven-year(2001?2002?2004?2006-2009)were used to input into the CERES-Maize Model,we also simulate an calculate the loss rate of the key indicators which plays a major impact on the final yield at different growth stages under different disaster magnitude of drought,at last we got the vulnerability curves of different growing stages.The results show that vulnerability affects the final yield from high to low is tasseling stage,jointing stage,maturity stage,seeding stage.When use the drought vulnerability assessment model,three typical drought years(2004,2006 and 2007)in Northeastern Jilin Province were used to calculate the model by using CERES-Maize model.The maize vulnerability indexes to drought were divided into 4 grades on which basis maize vulnerability zone maps.were isolated in GIS environment for typical drought years.The results showed that the areas with high drought vulnerability were Baicheng,Taonan and Zhenlai,etc.The low drought vulnerability areas were Songyuan and Fuyu,etc.Regression analysis of maize vulnerability indexes to drought in the three typical drought years of each growth period and maize yield loss was also conducted.The analysis showed a basic agreement among the factors for F test of significant at a=0.05 of different growing stages.This indicated that it was reasonable to evaluate and predict the maize vulnerability to drought using the established model in the region.The results can be used to assess drought damage quickly,provide the basis for the regional agricultural drought disaster risk assessment and early warning,and also can provide the basis for the regional disaster prevention and management.