Research On Financial Factors Of China's Coal Price

Coal is the main energy source in China.In the coal consumption structure,coal accounts for more than 60%.Although in recent years,in order to adjust the energy structure,energy-saving emission reduction countries are vigorously developing new energy,but combined with China's energy consumption status,it is almost impossible to significantly reduce the use of coal in China,so coal is still the main China in the next long time Consumer energy.Compared with oil,there are many articles on the relationship between financial factors and oil prices,and there is relatively little research on coal prices.In addition,China's energy finance is rapidly rising.As China's main energy source,coal will increasingly be affected by financial factors.Based on the above two points,the paper will study the impact of financial factors on coal prices.This thesis first gives a brief introduction to China's coal resources,the status of the coal industry,and the development of China's coal finance.The thesis selects the China Coal Price Index(CCPI)national comprehensive index issued by China Coal Industry Association as the research object,and selects the money supply,interest rate,new energy stock price index,international crude oil futures from the three aspects of demand,supply and substitution.Prices,the stock price index of the steel industry,the stock price index of the chemical industry,the stock price index of the power industry,the stock price index of the cement manufacturing industry,and the money supply are the financial factors that affect coal prices.In addition,the theoretical analysis and transmission of financial factors on coal prices were conducted.Based on the theoretical analysis,the variables were tested for stationarity,cointegration test,Granger causality test,and then the Copula function model was used to study the correlation between financial variables and coal prices.The results showed that all financial variables were there is a certain degree of interdependence between coal prices,so the paper does not remove the variables,and then use the error correction model and empirical analysis of the influencing factors.The following conclusions are drawn: In the financial variables,the international crude oil futures price,exchange rate,power stock price index and cement manufacturing stock price index will have a greater impact on coal price changes.First of all,for international crude oil futures prices and exchange rates,both of which are international factors,their fluctuations often have a certain relationship with the development of the global economy,indicating that China's coal market will respond quickly to changes in the international market,that is,China's coal The stability of the market is closely related to the fluctuation of the international crude oil futures price and the exchange rate;secondly,the impact of the power stock price index and the cement manufacturing stock price index on the fluctuation of the coal industry is also significant,both from the perspective of correlation analysis and influencing factors.The index has a greater impact on coal prices.This is an industry factor.It can be seen from the theoretical analysis that the consumption of coal in these two industries is relatively large,so it has a great impact on the demand of the coal market,and it will have a greater impact on coal prices.