Study On The Relationship Between Chinese Coal Price And Economic Development

For a long time, the coal industry has been promoting the development of our social economic factor, and it's as an attribute of the upstream industry determines the coal price fluctuations have an impact on our prices, investment, consumption and import and export,thus further affecting Chinese economic development and social stability. Since the financial crisis of severe economic fluctuations, growth rate of coal production was declining, coal price was fluctuating frequently, especially in recent years, affected by the macroeconomic recession, coal price was declining obviously,and it has a great influence on the coal industry and macroeconomic, how to suppress fluctuations in the price of coal effectively, to achieve sustained and stable economic growth, which is one of the important goals of our government's macro-control.This paper collected datas since Chinese reform and opening up three decades of coal price and macroeconomic, and analysed these datas, using HP filter, researched Chinese coal price and macroeconomic volatility; using the cointegration test, Granger causality test,researched the effect of coal price on the economic growth and the price level, then revealed the influence of Chinese coal price fluctuations on macroeconomic scientifically; using the VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, researched the effect of national economy, money supply and price level on the coal price, and revealed that the impact of Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations on coal price effectively.By analyzing the study we found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and Granger causality between Chinese coal price and GDP, and the price level, GDP,industrial added index, consumer price index and money supply have an influence on the coal price fluctuations. Specifically, GDP has a Long-term positive impact on the coal price,industrial added index has a negative impact on the coal price, money supply has a slight positive effect on the coal price, and consumer price index has an alternately positive andnegative effect on the coal price. As the contribution rate for coal price fluctuations, GDP has the maximum contribution rate, followed by consumer price index, industrial added index is again, and finally is the money supply.