| With the global warming and the increasing occurrence of global extreme meteorological and hydrological events,the industrial systems in coastal lowland areas are facing serious threats such as extreme floods.As a typical coastal lowland area,Shanghai has a developed industrial economy and a large population.Extreme flooding will cause huge direct economic losses and indirect impacts on the Shanghai industrial system.With the development of economic globalization,the division of labor between industrial systems has become increasingly sophisticated.How to quantitatively assess the direct and indirect effects of extreme disasters on industrial systems is a problem that needs to be solved.Although more work has been done on the evaluation of economic losses caused by extreme disasters,most of them focus on the evaluation of direct economic losses after disasters.There are few evaluations on the economic loss of disasters in the industrial sector and less on the integrated assessment of direct economic losses and indirect economic losses.In this study,we assess the flood's impact on automobile firms and related industries in Shanghai under extreme flood scenarios of the Huangpu River.Information about the automobile industry in Shanghai is obtained from Shanghai's ‘Third Economic Census Database'.Our analytical framework is implemented in a GIS environment with the support of input-output models.Our approach is able to estimate the direct economic losses,economic losses due to disrupted production,as well as the cascading and ripple effects on related industries.Our study concludes with policy recommendations.For example,the Shanghai municipal government should strengthen the flood control capacity along the Huangpu River and Suzhou River.Relevant firms also need to carefully develop ‘Business Continuity Planning' in order to be resilient under floods and other natural disasters.In particular,these firms need to pay special attention to the ripple effects and systemic risks caused by disrupted production.The main contents and major achievements of the study include,451 or 23.1% of the automobile firms and 328 or 28.28% of the electricity firmsin Shanghai will be susceptible to flood risk.The total number of employees of automobile manufacturing enterprises is 67,953.The annual operating income is 220.69 billion yuan,accounting for 23.1% and 25.9% of the city's total respectively;There are 86,498 employees in the electronics industry,accounting for 45.56% of the total in the city.The sum of operating income was 62.856 billion,accounting for 48.95% of the city's total.This study establishes a method for integrating assessment of direct economic losses and indirect economic losses.The direct economic losses,stop production losses,and industry-related losses of Shanghai automobile manufacturing and electronic companies were evaluated in extreme flood scenarios.The result is that the loss of plant construction,loss of production equipment,and loss of vehicle inventory for the Shanghai automobile manufacturing industry were 310 million yuan,19.61 billion yuan,and 970 million yuan,respectively.The production losses of auto OEMs,parts and accessories manufacturers were 20.91 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan respectively,and the industrial related losses were 103.76 billion yuan and 14.47 billion yuan respectively.The loss of factory buildings,loss of production equipment,and inventory loss of Shanghai Electronics Manufacturing Industry were 310 million yuan,13.297 billion yuan and 5.147 billion yuan respectively.The discontinued loss of electronic manufacturing enterprises was 6.924 billion,and the related loss of the industry was 29.862 billion.Industrial-linked losses are basically the same as the sum of discontinued losses and direct economic losses.(3)The distribution of direct economic losses and stop losses of Shanghai automobile manufacturing enterprises and Shanghai electronic components and device manufacturing industries in various regions of Shanghai was analyzed,and the most vulnerable space areas for Shanghai automotive manufacturing,electronic components and device manufacturing were identified.From the loss results,it can be known that the direct economic and production losses of the production equipment of the Pudong New Area automobile industry are relatively serious,at 9.34 billion yuan and 22.17 billion yuan respectively,which account for 47.6% and 79.7% of the city respectively.As it is the location of the Shanghai GM vehicle manufacturer,which is a large-scale enterprise,it is the location of the Shanghai GM vehicle manufacturer,which is the largest-scale loss-making enterprise.Therefore,it has become the township with the most serious production losses,with a total loss of 18.41 billion yuan.Pudong New Area is the most serious area of the Shanghai electronics manufacturing industry in terms of building construction loss,production equipment loss,inventory loss and production suspension losses,which were45 million,7.390 billion,2.758 billion,and 4.277 billion respectively,and all losses accounted for the city's The proportion of loss items was 33.24%,55.58%,53.58%,and 61.78%,respectively.(4)This study analyzes the distribution of direct economic losses and suspended production losses in different inundation depths between Shanghai automobile manufacturing enterprises and Shanghai electronics manufacturing industry.Due to the distribution of two large automakers,the loss of production in the 2.5~3.0 m flood depth zone was the most serious,reaching 25.52 billion yuan.The two auto OEMs caused a total loss of 18.37 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan respectively.(5)This study assesses the spillover effects of the Shanghai auto manufacturing and electronics manufacturing industries after the suspension of production on related industries.The results are as follows: After the suspension of production of vehicle manufacturers and parts and components manufacturers in Shanghai auto manufacturing enterprises,the industries most affected by the disruption are the vehicle manufacturing industry itself and parts and accessories manufacturing industries.Among them,the industry most affected by the disruption of the automobile manufacturing industry after the suspension of production was the automobile manufacturing industry,with a total loss of 28.76 billion yuan,accounting for 27.7% of the total loss,followed by the automobile parts and components manufacturing industry.It was 13.87 billion yuan,accounting for 13.4% of the total loss.After the auto parts and parts manufacturing industry stopped production,the auto parts and accessories industry was the most affected by the impact.The industry-related losses that were caused by the suspension of production and production cuts in related industries were 24.71 billion yuan.The disruption caused by the suspension of production by Shanghai electronics companies has caused the most serious impact on the industry itself,resulting in a total of 22.297 billion in contagion losses,accounting for 74.67% of the total loss,followed by the wholesale and retail industry,with a loss of 2.11 billion,accounting for the total ratio.7.2% of loss.Shanghai municipal government should strengthen the flood control capacity along the Huangpu River and Suzhou River.Relevant firms also need to carefully develop ‘Business Continuity Planning' in order to be resilient under floods and other natural disasters.In particular,these firms need to pay special attention to the ripple effects and systemic risks caused by disrupted production. |
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