Research On The Coordination Of Regional Economic Cycle In China Based On The Perspective Of Complex Networks

The measurement of the regional economic cycle and the analysis of its synergy are of great significance to a country's formulation of macroeconomic policies.At present,there are many literatures on the coordinative study of the regional economic cycle in China.However,the literature analyzed from the perspective of the relationship between regions is not common,and it still cannot meet the need for complex and multi-linear economic development modes between regions in China..Therefore,it is necessary to examine the inter-regional synergy by measuring the economic cycles between regions.This paper firstly uses HP filter analysis to measure the economic cycle of 31 provinces and cities in China.Secondly,divides the provinces and cities of China into three major regions: East,Central and West,and compares and analyzes the economic cycles of the three regions and the country;At the same time,we used the correlation coefficient and complex network method to examine the economic cycle co-ordination among 31 provinces and cities before and after China's reform and opening up.At the same time,we analyzed the economic cycles before and after the reform and opening up in the three major regions.Based on the analysis of synergies,after considering the internal relationships among the three major regions,the associations between the three major regions and external regions are combed to measure the synergy between the three regions and the external regions.Finally,the conclusions obtained provide recommendations for China's macroeconomic operations.The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis of regional economic cycles:(1)China's economic cycle is divided into four phases from reform and opening up to the present.The economic cycles of some provinces and cities in 31 provinces and cities are divided into four phases.In the same way,in other regions,the economic cycle is divided into five phases,which are obviously out of step with the national economic cycle;(2)The average position of the country and the three major regions both show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,and the third cycle The average position in China is the highest;in terms of volatility,the fluctuations in the economic cycle of the country and provinces and regions as a whole are getting smaller and smaller.(3)From 1979 to 2016,the overall economic cycle between regions in China has a good degree of synergy.In terms of segmentation,the synergy of the economic cycle between regions was weak during the period from 1979 to 1992 during the period of reform and opening up;and the synergy of the economic cycles between regions increased significantly during the period from 1993 to 2016 after the reform and opening up.(4)The eastern,central and western cooperativity shows that the eastern region is better than the central region and better than the western region.The economic development of the eastern region as a whole has a high degree of synergy between the regional economic cycles,but in the period of reform and opening up,the synergy between the regions was insufficient,and the synergy of the latter stage was significantly improved;the coordination of the central and western regions In the previous stage of reform and opening up,it showed extremely low synergy,and the synergy in the later stage was significantly improved.