Research On Local Government Debt Risk In China Based On Spatial Dubin Model

All kinds of data show that the scale of local government debt in China is increasing,and the risks are increasing.The risk of local government debt needs to be paid attention to.It is urgent to find out the source and current situation of local government debt in China,and to find ways to resolve and monitor the risk of local government debt.The research contents of this paper are as follows: firstly,the background and research value of the problem are elaborated,and the research objects,research methods and research innovation are introduced.Secondly,through literature review and sorting out,we find the shortcomings and blind spots that appear.Thirdly,the current situation of local government debt in China is analyzed,from the types of local government debt,the scale of local government debt,the form and challenge of local government debt management,and the summary of the relevant policies to describe the actual situation of local government debt in our country,which will pave the way for the later analysis.Then,using the measurement model to construct the evaluation method of local government debt in our country,because of the significant spatial effect of local government debt,this paper uses the space doberin model to analyze,at the same time,the general panel model is also used to analyze the regression analysis for the formation of this paper.Finally,we use spatial econometric method to do empirical research.By using random effect model and spatial Dobbin model,the results and conclusions are obtained as follows: inflation,income balance,net inflow rate,GDP growth rate,debt service rate have negative impact on local government debt risk,and local GDP has a significant negative impact on local government debt risk.The volatility of the general budget income for four years,the elasticity of local fiscal revenue,the ratio of debt and the ratio of the deposit and loan of the financial institutions have a negative impact on the local government's debt risk.At the same time,according to the results of the space doberen model,the influence of these factors on local government debt is spillover to the government lendingbehavior in the jurisdiction,and then overflowing to the local government outside the jurisdiction.By comparison,it is found that their spatial effects on local government debt are less than those within the jurisdiction.The results of the spatial Dobbin model find that the local government debt risk has a significant positive spatial spillover effect,that is,the target analysis area has a positive spillover effect on the government debt risk in the geographical or economic adjacent areas,and this positive spillover effect is actually the ratio of the inter regional government credit financing.The higher the scale of the local debt in the target area will positively promote the size of the local governments in the neighboring areas,and the closer the distance is,the greater the degree of influence will be.