Research On The Crowding Out Effect Of Chinese Bank Financial Products On Money Supply At Present Stage

With the rapid growth of China's economy,the residents of the growing demand for investment,in this context,benefited from macroeconomic policy coordination and the enrichment of financial instruments,bank financial products into the market rapid expansion,beginning in 2010,bank financial products market capacity,by the end of2017,the stock of more than 29 trillion yuan,has become a powerful influence macroeconomic financial strength.Misunderstandings for Banks,by contrast,the study of the theory of the financial product development lags behind the reality,although in the frame of the macro-prudential administration(MPA)for its consideration,monetary authorities have not bank financial products should be brought into the statistical caliber of the money supply.This paper argues that bank financial products will produce a crowding out effect on M2 M2,and analyze it from both theoretical and empirical aspects.In theory,as a result of the existence of bank financial management products,part of bank savings deposits have been pushed out,at this time the central bank in monetary difficulties to define,together with many bank financial products belong to off-balance-sheet financing,lead to the theoretical value and practical value of the money supply,the divergence of monetary statistics distortion in a certain extent.This further affects the effect of monetary policy to regulate the economy,and financial funds may enter the real economy through off-balance-sheet financing,thus affecting the macroeconomic operation.This paper on the present situation and development of wealth management products were summarized,and define the definition of financial product,type,characteristic,and then combed the wealth management products in China's development present situation,including the financial product key features such as scale,term structure and yield.On this basis,the thesis will analyze financial product impact on money supply,its impact on money supply can be divided into on the relationship between the money supply fluctuation,and the effects of the structure of money supply and the influence of the total money supply,including the impact on the money supply is divided into the effect of financial product distribution period and after the issuance of two kinds of situations,in this paper,the empirical part mainly adopts filtering and fixed time window scroll correlation coefficient analysis,observation of the money supply and the volatility of the financial product and the relationship between the tendency item,then based on the economic model for M0,M1 monthly incremental,wealth management products monthly incremental and M2 monthly incremental regression analysis,and compare the extraction equation explanation degree before and after financial variables,the interception of different time samples were analyzed,and the purpose is to explore financial product in presence of crowding out,money supply effect how,whether in the near future more apparent,the thesis further analyzed the influence of bank financial products in macroeconomic and to demonstrate the presence of monetary policy effects.The main findings of quantitative research are: firstly,a large amount of bank financing products will lead to a decline in the growth of broad money,which has a certain crowding out effect on M2;Secondly,the bank financial products have a hump effect similar to that of broad money supply,and there are short-term non-neutral and long-term neutral.Finally,if bank wealth management products are included in M2,the new money supply indicators are more relevant to economic growth.According to the quantitative analysis results of the paper,the paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions for the development bank financial products.