Research On China’s Automobile Export

The reform and opening up has led to the upsurge of "going out and introducing".All industries are growing in competition,and the development of the automobile industry has attracted much attention.The industry has a unique development advantage in the market,and this also makes the export trade a great development,China’s economy also has a qualitative leap.It is not only conducive to the improvement of China’s international balance of payments,but also greatly helps the stable development of the national economy.As early as 2005,the number of exported cars in China was only 173 thousand,but in 2010,the number of exports increased to 567 thousand vehicles.In 2012,the number of cars exported was the highest in the year,up to 1 million vehicles.However,due to the influence of various external factors,the number of China’s automobile exports began to decline,from 730 thousand in 2015 to 640 thousand in the following year.Look at the situation can not be optimistic about the export industry of automobile of our country from the above results,this paper focuses on the related data in line with the export of the real effective exchange rate of RMB with Chinese auto exports have been analyzed,the professionalism of the results show that the RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuations indeed had an impact on the export trade of automobile,but this effect continues weakening.Due to the loss of auto industry’s advantages and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate,the pressure faced by auto industry in export trade is also increasing.Under the influence of double pressure both at home and abroad,the automobile industry has exposed a lot of problems,such as overcapacity,lack of innovation,poor management information and so on.To some extent,exchange rate policy can help to transform functions of prices,which is a key index to be investigated in China’s export trade.It plays a great role in regulating the balance of payments.After 2005 exchange rate adjustments,the nominal exchange rate of the RMB is in a trend of rising at a certain stage.And after 2014,the nominal exchange rate of the RMB began to devalue,and the two-way fluctuation became more frequent.Nowadays,the national government has begun to realize the importance of the development of the automotive industry.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study and analyze the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the export of automobiles.The main content of this study is divided into the following five parts:the first part is the research purpose,significance of the research,methods,ideas and innovations are described,then the second part first explained including the nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate concepts related to the subject,such as exchange rate fluctuations,and next to the elastic related theories are introduced,including the Marshall Lerner condition,currency substitution theory,J curve effect.Finally,the research results obtained at home and abroad are collated and summarized.The third part is mainly to analyze the fluctuation trend of the RMB exchange rate in the last twenty years and the factors that produce the fluctuation.Then it analyzes the current development of China’s automobile industry,mainly divided into two kinds of cars and buses.The change rules of the export volume of the two cars and the general distribution of the export areas are analyzed,because the two models have strong representativeness,which can reflect the export situation of Chinese automobile.The main content of the fourth part is to analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the export of automobile by means of empirical analysis.Refer to the relevant data,from 1996-2016 using vector correction model and Johenson coordination test,study the process of long term operation mechanism,this part includes the stationarity test,the optimal lag selection,cointegration test,Granger causality test,VEC model prediction,and the final summary.To sum up,the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB has great influence on the export volume of our automobile,but when the index continues to increase,it will not only increase the cost of automobile export,but also reduce its export benefit.Another conclusion is that the increase in the national income of the importing countries is not effective in promoting the export of Chinese cars.Finally,according to the empirical results and combined with the current "The Belt and Road" policy put forward feasible suggestions and enterprises from the perspective of the RMB exchange rate point of view,the government’s macroeconomic policy perspective.In order to facilitate the future development of foreign trade in China’s auto industry,the core competitiveness of China’s automobile in the international market will be strengthened.