| According to the government work report of Premier Li Keqiang at the opening meeting of the Second Session of the13 th NPC,some new trends of economic and financial policies could be seen.In 2018,the government will prevent and resolve local government debt risk to keep fiscal deficit as same as fiscal deficit last year,and will decline the rate of financial deficit,but will increase sharply the local special bonds.Comprehensively,the general fiscal expenditure growth rate was 5.9% of 2018,lower than that of 2017,so that infrastructure investment growth is expected to fell slightly in 2018.From the perspective of specific policies and measures,although the deficit rate has dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%(2.38 trillion yuan deficit,unchanged from the previous year),the local special bond has been allocated 1.35 trillion yuan,an increase of 550 billion yuan compared with that of last year.and limited support for construction projects.Referring relevant credit bonds’ credit risk research methods,we hope to analyze the main factors that affect the credit spread of the Government General Bond in this paper.Therefore,we could contribute to improving the pricing mechanism of the Government General Bond and promoting the development of the Government General Bond market.This paper concentrates on the Government General Bond,and discusses the impact of the macro factors on the credit spreads of the Government General Bond.In the regression analysis,the credit spreads of term spreads,the consumer price index CPI,money supply M2 and the degree of economic prosperity are used to establish the regression model.Finally,we make a summary and draw the conclusion: the credit spreads have positive correlation with inflation rates,risk-free interest rate and term spread,and have negative correlation with money supply.Among them,the stronger local economic situation and the financial strength,the higher the credit factors,the smaller credit risk is. |
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