Study On The Influence Mechanism Of Rural Residents' Consumption, Population Change And Economic Growth

In this paper,the main study purposes are to reveal the relationship between rural residents' consumption,rural population change and economic growth,impact response characteristics and mechanism of action.Selecting relevant indicators,gathering since the reform and opening-up policy,a total of 38 years period(1978-2015)data as sample,using the method of descriptive statistics and fast clustering method,the ADF unit root test,VAR lag order determination method and TCV-SV-VAR model to carry on the empirical analysis,the study found that:(1)Rural residents' consumption,rural population change and economic growth have been characterized by periodic fluctuating changes,and the proportion of rural population show "cliff" decline in 1995-1996,and the decline gradually eased after 2010.(2)The consumption growth of rural residents has a positive impact on economic growth rate,and its driving effect is very positive and gradual,and the impact peak is in 2011.The narrowing of the size of the rural population has a certain role in promoting.The effect is the longer,the more obvious.(3)Economic growth of rural residents' consumption has certain hysteresis,and lag in the short term impact on the obvious,is beneficial to the rural residents' consumption,long-term adverse instead lagging,in the same period of economic growth is not the same time,in turn,promote the growth of the rural residents' consumption;The influence of the economic growth of rural population change coincided with the rural population changes impact on economic growth of our country is "vertical symmetry",the change rural population impact on economic growth difference mainly reflects in different periods.In the long run,the impact of economic growth on rural population size is negative,which can promote the reduction of rural population size.(4)Rural population change affects the consumption of rural residents positively,the biggest impact is the lag of 5 years.Decline in the proportion of rural population in the rural residents' consumption has a promoting effect,but after the new normal rural population change on the influence of the rural residents' consumption significantly slows,the lag of shock response is relatively small;The impact of rural population change on economic growth is negative,and it is almost at the same level in the long run.The shock effect of late period is "V" in shape,and the bottom of it is negative effect in the period of time lag 5 and lag 10 before and after 1993.In the short term,China's urbanization process has reduced the proportion of rural population and has not reflected the strong fluctuation of economic growth in the rural population(5)Rural residents' consumption in certain time,the rural population changes and the impact of the economic growth between different effect performance,highly consistent and impact between the short term,as shock periods increase their differences.The fluctuation of rural population will obviously lead to the decline of rural consumption growth during the 1-3 period,but the rural population fluctuation will have a positive effect on it and the positive influence over a long period of time.The impact of rural residents' consumption and economic growth on the rural population was followed by the period from big to small in 1993,1999 and 2009.The impact of consumption of rural residents on economicgrowth has the greatest impact in the second period.The impact of rural population change on economic growth in the period from 0 stage to 1 stage was negative and then quickly became positive,reaching a maximum at 3 stage.Finally,based on the findings,this paper puts forward the policy implications of the coordinated development of rural consumption,population and economic growth in China.