Beijing’s Financial Revenue Forecast

Since 1978,Chinese economic and social changes have taken place.Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,as the country’s economic and social development leader,is witnessing and leading Chinese reform and opening up.Beijing’s economic development is also an important research case in the history of China’s urban development.Its 30 years of financial revenue and expenditure,but also accompanied by the increase in regional GDP in the rapid development of Beijing’s 30 years of fiscal revenue factors,not only the Beijing financial system reform and deepening of the understanding and research,Its understanding of Chinese economic reform for more than 30 years is also of great significance.In Chinese current tax-sharing financial management,the provinces of the fiscal revenue is not only an important part of national revenue,but also its own independent structure.How to effectively use the local local fiscal revenue,so that it can actively promote the economic development of the provinces,while improving the income and life,which should be our government needs to focus on solving the problem.In addition,due to the current local governments in our provinces in the local fiscal revenue forecast level of different levels,each place of the fiscal revenue forecast model is different,and there is no unified communication normative mechanism,therefore,led to the local provinces of China’s local revenue forecast can not Very good horizontal comparison,affecting the local financial revenue of the provinces of the healthy development.On the other hand,due to the relatively slow start of our country,the development is relatively slow,and there are still the forecast mechanism is not perfect,the forecast method is more old and so on,leading to China’s forecast science and abroad compared to a far cry,in recent years,The direction of scientific research in China is mainly focused on the analysis and improvement of the forecasting model,which has made great progress compared with the history,but we have a long way to compare with the current foreign density prediction method.To go,in addition to our local government data on the forecasting method,the choice of factors such as the choice of factors are still in a blank state.Based on the above reasons,we combined with the real level of fiscal revenue in Beijing for more than 30 years.Under the premise of taking into account almost all factors influencing the local fiscal revenue,we first use the traditional method of qualitative and quantitative combination.-Qualitative analysis of local fiscal revenue in 2015.Then we use R software to analyze the factors that affect Beijing’s fiscal revenue,and find out that Beijing’s fiscal revenue has developed rapidly since 1983,but it is very big and unstable.Then,the paper analyzes the influencing factors of fiscal revenue in Beijing from 1983 to 2015 by using the adaptive Lasso method and Lars based on R.We can find that using the Adaptive Lasso method not only can we accurately interpret the explanatory variables that affect the local fiscal revenue in Beijing,but also remove the explanatory variables that have little influence on the fiscal revenue of Beijing,thus reducing the multi-collinearity of the model,The model is more concise.To sum up,the practical value of this paper lies in the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and the establishment of Beijing’s fiscal revenue forecasting model.First,we use the adaptive Lasso method to select the nine key factors that affect the local fiscal revenue in Beijing,And got a good prediction accuracy,mainly including per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents,output value ratio of tertiary industry to secondary industry,total retail price index of commodities,and financial expenditure.Then,using the gray forecasting method,the forecast value of the 9 factors in the next two years is obtained,which is of great significance to the future local government revenue forecasting model in Beijing and other places.Afterwards,the gray forecasting and neural network forecast Combined with the model,we forecast the local fiscal revenue of Beijing in 2016-2017 for two years.