Prediction And Analy Sis Of Logistics Output Value In Six Central Provinces In China Based On Multi-model Comparison

The logistics industry plays an important role in promoting regional economic development,adjusting the industrial structure,and improving social welfare.Countries and governments around the world have formulated a series of policies from different aspects,the purpose of which is to speed up the development of the logistics industry.The development level of the logistics industry is very necessary.The central region is located in the center of my country’s inland and has the geographical advantage of connecting the east,west and north and south of my country.The superior geographical conditions are conducive to the development of the logistics industry in the central region,thereby promoting the economic development of the central region.Factors and their prediction of the future development of the logistics industry have certain significance.In this context,this paper has done the following tasks and tasks:(1)On the basis of domestic and foreign literatures on the influencing factors of the logistics industry,the paper selects eight aspects:logistics infrastructure construction,informatization degree,logistics labor demand,marketization degree,scientific and technological development,urbanization degree,industrial structure,and social consumption level.Twelve indicators are used as factors affecting the development of the logistics industry in the central region,and the corresponding characteristics and laws are analyzed.(2)The data from 2006-2020 of the six central provinces was selected to study the statistics of the output value of the logistics industry in the six central provinces in China.Since 12 indicators were selected to study the development of the logistics industry in the central region,in order to reduce the correlation between these indicators,Adaptive-Lasso was selected.Methods Screen the indicators that affect the statistics of the logistics industry output value in the six central provinces,delete the insignificant factors,and leave the significant factors,and provide corresponding suggestions for the development of the logistics statistics in the six central provinces according to the main influencing factors.(3)On the basis of screening variables,the GM(1,1)model,A-Lasso+GM(1,1)model and A-Lasso+BP neural network model are established to predict and predict the output value statistics of the logistics industry in the six central provinces.Analysis,according to the forecast results of the three,compared the errors of the three models,and formed the method of forecasting the logistics statistics of the six central provinces.