Research On Hog Supply Chain Mode Based On Rational Expectations With The Third Party Logistics As The Core

In recent years,the price of hog fluctuates more and more frequent in China,that brings negative impacts to hog breeders and pork consumers.The main reasons of this problem are those the extent of information sharing and the level of logistics services are low in Chinese hog supply chain.In order to promote the development of hog industry,we propose an innovation hog supply chain mode with the third party logistics as the core.Firstly,we analyzed the development status and problems of Chinese hog industry from supply and demand,price fluctuation,current circulation mode and industry support policy for finding the problems of hog supply chain.Secondly,hog breeders'behaviors are characterized with adaptive expectation theory and the result denotes that the output is largely influenced by breeders' price expectation.Thirdly,we established a hog supply chain mode with the third party logistics as the core and proposed the corresponding implementation strategies.At last,according to the monthly statistics of hog industry in recent years,we analyzed the main factors affecting hog price from material price,market supply and the price of substitute products.A regression model was set up using method of least squares to demonstrate the relationships of those factors.Then a vector error correction model(VEC model)was built as the rational expectation model of hog price and the prediction result of this model turned out to be good.This model can provide theoretical support for pig supply chain mode with third party logistics as the core.It shows that the innovation hog supply chain mode based on the VEC model has practical significance.