The Model Of Forecasting Real Estate Demand

Scientific analysis and decision-making are taken serious attention by people now.And many decision-makers in housing enterprises have turned their attention to scientific decisions.But contrary to reality,the theory and practice of real estate development are delayed.Therefore,improving the theoretical foundation of scientific research is the top priority of China's real estate project,also is the theory premise of the right decisions.According to the enterprise,market,customer needs,social comprehensive development level and other factors,we designed a questionnaire.Then,using multi-stage stratified random sampling method,we did the investigation and data collection.Last and most important,SPSS software was used for data description and frequency analysis.At the same time,combining with the Handan city bureau of statistics,statistical investigation brigade of GDP,per capita income,married logarithmic and so on,multivariate regression model was established.The main research contents of this paper are as follows.First,the survey was conducted.In the first stage,Handan city as the sampling frame was taken six districts,such as hanshan district and congtai district.In the second stage,each district as a sampling frame was selected several streets and communities.In the third stage,the survey was conducted in each location by the citizens of 20 years old and above.A number of citizens were surveyed to obtain relevant data on housing demand in Handan city.Second,the data collected was collated and input.Then,excluding invalid data and unreliable data,and using SPSS software to describe and analyze them.Finally,the missing value is filled by EM.Third,the correlation analysis of the macro data obtained by the statistical bureau is carried out.And the independent variable of the housing demand area is determined based on the size of the correlation coefficient.Multiple regression model is also established to predict the demand of housing.Fourth,the multivariate regression model was tested and improved,and the multiple co-linearity of the model was eliminated.The model was used to predict the housing demand of Handan city 2017-2021.This paper gives the model and calculation method of predicting the area of housing sales,and provides the basis for the decision making of house enterprises.The sales area of Handan city 2017-2021 is stable and rising.In general,the real estate industry is oversupplied and the urbanization level is high.At the same time,there rooms housing area of 80-130 squares or the school district room for the development is a key.The government can also be guided by proper policy or provide the corresponding preferential policies to guide buyers in the east new district,development zone,and fuxing district that buy a house.