Research On Price Forecast Of New Commercial Housing In Xi’an Based On GA-SVR Model

The real estate industry plays an important support role in the development of Chinese economy and society,and the house price has become a more direct index reflecting the development level of real estate market.Xi ’an is an important developing city in northwest China.In recent years,the price of commercial housing in Xi ’an has been increasing too fast.How to stabilize the house price control is one of the focus problems concerned by all walks of life,is also a main task of macro-control of the current real estate industry.Combining theory with practice,this paper analyzes and considers the influencing factors of the price of new commercial housing in an all-round way.According to the statistical data of Xi ’an real estate disclosed in Shaanxi Provincial statistical yearbook and national statistical yearbook,the index system of real estate price forecasting is preliminarily constructed.Using the statistical method of cluster analysis,the 25 main factors affecting the price of new commercial housing are analyzed and simplified,and on the basis of simplifying the influencing factors index,the final forecasting index system is determined.This way of selecting indexes can effectively overcome and balance the problems of representativeness and completeness of model prediction.Then MATLAB software programming language is used to construct,analyze and predict the support vector regression model optimized by genetic algorithm.The final selection of commodity housing price prediction index system is used in the regression model,so as to achieve the purpose of price analysis and prediction of Xi ’an new commercial housing.Finally,the accuracy of GA-SVR model prediction results is reflected by the lateral comparison and analysis of the prediction error value between models.Then,the model is used to predict the price of new commercial housing in Xi ’an in 2021-2024,and the average selling price of new commercial housing in Xi ’an in the next few years is obtained.Based on the prediction results,this paper introduces the concept of house price to income ratio to measure and calculate the housing market bubble,and concludes that there is a high real estate bubble in Xi ’an commercial housing market.Combined with the specific situation of the housing market in Xi ’an,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the government to develop the housing market healthily and stably.