An Analysis On Trade Potential Of BCIM Economic Corridor

In 2017,the whole world economy has enjoyed a good momentum of development.Chinese economy has also risen faster than before the economic structural reform.This year,China embraced the world in a more open and inclusive manner.Chinese leaders attended G20,APEC and other conferences and visited the United States,Russia,India and other countries.This year there are the "One Belt and One Road" International Cooperation Summit and the BRICS summit home diplomacy.Jinping Xi pointed out at the conference that in the complex and ever-changing in the world economic structure,all countries should adhere to the policy of opening up to the outside world,develop the multilateral trade mechanism and pursue the concept of win-win cooperation.The "One Belt and One Road" is a new type of regional cooperation led by China with a total of six major economic corridors.The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor occupies a very important position among them and enjoys unique advantages in terms of geographical location,population size and total economic output.Since the cooperation between Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar began in 1999 as a forum,the development has been going on for 18 years and remarkable achievements have been made.In 2000,the total volume of import and export trade in the four countries reached 11.01 billion dollars,up to 209.19 billion dollars in 2016,an increase of nearly 19 times.However,the import and export volume of all countries in the region accounted for a relatively small portion of the total volume of imports and exports.In 2016,the total exports to Myanmar accounted for 50% of the total,while the remaining three countries accounted for less than 10%of their total exports respectively.41% of the total foreign imports,India,about 18%,China in this area is very low.This paper mainly reviews the relevant literature and theories to understand the research methods and research status in this field,analyzes the overall trade status of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar through comprehensive data,the compe-titiveness and complementarity of different categories of products,combined with trade gravity model,analyze the trade potential of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar Economic Corridor,so as to provide reference suggestion and route choice for further promoting the development of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar Economic Corridor.This article draws the following conclusions:Both the total volume of import trade and the total volume of export trade in the region increased rapidly by about 20 times.However,from the establishment of cooperation in 1999 up to now,the proportion of imports and exports in the territory accounting for the share of imports and exports increasing slowly has not exceeded10% and there is room for further growth in the future.China and India make up a large part of the total trade volume of the four countries,with China leading the way in terms of volume of exports and India leading the way in imports.In the field of import and export trade,from the perspective of changes in product categories,the proportion of primary products dropped and the proportion of finished products increased.Among them,capital-intensive products increased more rapidly.From this we can see that the overall trade structure in the region has changed.The main body of intra-territorial trade between the Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar Economic Corridors is transforming from a primary product to an industrial product.The similarity index of exports between China and India and India and Burma is higher and shows an overall upward trend.The similarity index of exports between China and Bangladesh has been changing steadily and has been at a relatively high level.The similarity index of exports between China,Myanmar,India,Bangladesh and India and Myanmar has shown a downward trend in recent ten years,but tends to rise in 2016,which shows that the reform measures of all countries in strengthening their export capacity have achieved remarkable results.Specifically,Sino-India 、 China and Bangladesh 、 China and Myanmar have relatively high similarities in exports of primary products SITC0 in the world market,while SITC1,SITC2,SITC3 and SITC4 occupy relatively small proportions,with aslight increase except for China and Bangladesh,with the rest declining.The similarity of finished goods export is different.All kinds of manufactured goods in Sino-India are high.The labor-intensive products in Central and Bangladesh are higher than those in capital-intensive products,but the capital intensive products in Central and Myanmar have lower export intensity.India and Bangladesh、India and Myanmar in the primary product SITC0 similar high degree of export products in the world market,and has been in a downward trend,SITC1,SITC2,SITC3 and SITC4 accounted for relatively small,with little change.India and Bangladesh finished products in the world market,the overall similarity of export products higher,and showed a downward trend.However,the similarity of export of labor-intensive products in Bangladesh is high and that of capital-intensive products is relatively low.Sino-India 、 China and Bangladesh 、 China and Myanmar have the highest interdependence on labor-intensive products.Sino-India have stronger complementarities than SITC1 and SITC9.China relies more on India on SITC6 and SITC7,and on the rest,India relies more on China.When China and Bangladesh were exporters and their exporting countries were China,all the products except for SITC1,SITC3 and SITC9 were strong complementarities.When Bangladesh was the exporter,only half of the products were highly complementary,namely SITC0,SITC1,SITC2,SITC6 and SITC8.When China and Myanmar were exporting countries to China,all the products except for SITC2 and SITC9 were highly complementary.When exporting countries were Myanmar,all the products except SITC1,SITC5 and SITC7 had strong complementarity.The common products between India and Bangladesh、India and Myanmar all have strong complementarities.When the importing country is India,all the products except SITC1,SITC5 and SITC7 are highly complementary.India With the exception of SITC8,India relies more on primary products than on Bangladesh,both in primary products and manufactured products.Among the remaining products,Bangladesh and Myanmar are highly complementary to each other except for capital-intensive products,and Bangladesh is more dependent on Myanmar for manufactured products.Myanmar is more dependent on Bangladesh for primary products.Since the establishment of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor,bilateral trade potential has been increasing,and bilateral trade potential between Sino-India is much larger than that between other countries.The trade potential between China and Bangladesh is relatively large Big.Sino-India are basically on the rise until 2012,with only a short-term decline after the financial crisis and political and other factors after 2012.The bilateral trade potential is in a downward trend.The remaining bilateral countries,such as China and Bangladesh、China and Myanmar、India and Bangladesh、India and Myanmar、Bangladesh and Myanmar have all along been increasing.With the exception of China and Myanmar in terms of trade potential development,the remaining potential for bilateral trade has not yet been fully realized and there is still much room for growth.