Research On Abnormal Fluctuation Of House Price Based On Real Estate Regulation Policy

Since the real estate marketization in China in 1999,the inflow of real estate funds has continued to increase,and real estate prices have continued to rise.This article believes that in addition to the long-term rising trend of housing prices,it should also focus on short-term abnormal fluctuations.From a long-term analysis,relatively stable and rising housing prices have positive effects on China’s economy.Long-term growth is achieved in the short-term control of abnormal fluctuations.If we can better control short-term fluctuations,we can Stimulating economic growth,on the other hand,can be justified to release pressure on the market,which will not cause major economic harm.Under the macro-control of our country,abnormal fluctuations in prices have become the norm,and there are large differences between cities.Therefore,the sub-city determines the abnormal fluctuation range of real estate prices in China,which is conducive to monitoring by the supervisory authorities and helps the government to formulate corresponding policies to control risks.Based on this,this article takes the existence of abnormal fluctuations in real estate prices? What kind of policy is affected? These two issues are logical main lines.First of all,the theory of real estate price fluctuations is sorted out to clarify the intrinsic causes(supply and demand)and external causes(noise trade)of abnormal price fluctuations,and the mechanism of action of China’s control policies is based on direct purchase restriction policies,down payment ratio policies,provident fund policies,and guarantees.Sexual housing policies,monetary policies,and land policies are categorized.Secondly,it outlines the real estate situation in China and the real estate regulation process from 1998 to 2017.Again,through the GSADF test proposed by Phillips et al.in 2013,empirical tests were carried out on the real commodity residential sales price index in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China over the past 11 years to detect the specific range of abnormal fluctuations in real estate prices;the influencing factors were determined by the VAR model.Specific role.Finally,the results were analyzed horizontally and longitudinally,and suggestions were made to point out the lack of research.The research in this paper shows that in the past 11 years,there have been six rounds of abnormal real estate price fluctuations in China,involving a total of 24 cities,and the price fluctuations between cities are transitive.In addition,the occurrence of abnormal price fluctuations,silence and dormant time are affected by regulatory policies,and irritating control policies can make speculative buyers madly enter the market,resulting in abnormal price fluctuations,but with a certain lag;the purchase restriction policy has timeliness.Only part of the speculative demand for home purchases can be squeezed out of the market in stages,and when the price does not fall,speculative behavior in the market,after a certain period of silence,will still return to the market,causing abnormal price fluctuations..With the expansion of credit caused by the loose monetary policy,the demand side has lowered the capital threshold for investment in real estate,greatly eased the constraints on the supply and demand sides for obtaining funds from traditional banks,and increased the number of buyers for the purpose of investment in the real estate market.The effect of regulatory policies.