| The real estate industry of our country has been in the fast growing period after development of twenty years. Especially, the decision of the central government on stopping material distribution of houses early in1998heightened continuously the real estate market degree. And the effect of pulling the economy of the real estate industry has been gradually significant. It has become the pillar of national economy. Real estate industry is capital-intensive industry, and neither of its demand and supply can leave the support of finance. Therefore, monetary policy has very important influence on real estate price fluctuations, and the validity of monetary policy in regulating and controlling real estate price has attracted much attention in academe.Many scholars have done a lot of researches on the effect of monetary policy on real estate price. However, none of the related research literatures had classified real estate by residential real estate and commercial real estate. And there is also no research on the relationship between commercial real estate price fluctuation and monetary policy.Real estate is typically regional, so there are significant difference in the structure of demand and degree of development. Meanwhile, China is currently in economic transition, the regional economy and finance development are extremely imbalanced in China. Therefore, there are regional differences of unified monetary policy effect on real estate prices. The generation and continuous development of optimal currency area theory promote the academic community to pay attention and to study regional difference effects of monetary policy.The implementation of unified monetary policy on real estate price may have differences for different regions and different provinces in China. The regional difference will weaken the overall validity of monetary policy in regulating and controlling real estate through local constraints on the overall role, and will go against the coordinated development of the regional real estate market. To make researches on regional difference of monetary policy effect on real estate price can help to understand the regional characteristics when monetary policy transmits to real estate prices, to take combinations of policy tools that give full play to regional comparative advantages to affect real estate prices effectively. So studying in-depth regional differences of China’s real estate price and the differential regional effects of monetary policy on real estate price is particularly significant and practically meaningful.Base on the above consideration, this paper takes commercial real estate price fluctuation in different provinces of China as the research content, focus on analysis of how the monetary policy affect the price of commercial real estate, it has certain theoretical and practical significance. It not only can enrich the theory of monetary policy effect on commercial real estate price in our country, but also can provide some policy recommendations on national commercial real estate market healthy development and continuously stabilized economy growth.Firstly, in this paper, we review the past researches of domestic and foreign scholars on the effect of monetary policy on real estate price, and summarize related research literatures. We also analyze some correlation theories about the contents of China’s monetary policy and transmission mechanism, the regional difference of monetary policy effect and the pathways that monetary policy influence real estate price. Secondly, based on the above theoretical study, this paper analyzes the current status of commercial real estate market in China, involving the main macroeconomic indicators, commercial real estate market trends, and then describes the outstanding problems in the commercial real estate market and government regulation as well as analyzes the possible reasons behind it. Thirdly, This paper used cluster analysis to classify the28provinces which selected in the empirically analyze. In the cluster analysis, taking the per capita disposable annual income in urban areas,the average commercial real estate price of selected provinces and annual multiple price growth rate as the index of clustering analysis are the major highlight and innovation of this article. As a result,28provinces were sorted into three major regions--eastern, middle and western. This paper uses the panel data from1999to2010of28provinces and municipalities in China for qualitative and quantitative analysis of regional differences of the monetary policy and the relevant economic variables affect commercial real estate price. This paper uses eviews6.0software to complete the corresponding experimental and statistical the reliability of the verification, to ensure that the experimental analysis can explain the real economic problems. Then this paper analyzes the factors, which determined commercial real estate price fluctuation, based on panel data model. In the model, we consider the impact of monetary policy on commercial real estate price specially.Conclusions of this study include:Monetary policy has obvious regional effect on the commercial real estate market. Monetary policy to encourage the development of the commercial real estate market is better than suppression. To the long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of commercial real estate price, the effects of money supply in middle region are stronger and the effects in eastern region and western region are weaker. So we think the money supply is effective to control middle region’s commercial real estate price. The effects of interest rate policy have no distinct difference in all regions. The effects of per capita disposable income have significant difference in all regions. The development of commercial real estate market is more dependent on its economic conditions.According to the above conclusions, this paper makes the following proposals. First, based on the unified monetary policy, put emphasis upon the monetary policy differentiation. Second, promote inter-regional coordinated development, narrow the gap in development among region, and promote the conformation of the Optimum Currency Area. Last, improve commercial real estate market and make full use of its function on promoting monetary policy transmission. We hope these analysis and suggestions will provide certain practical basis in differential monetary policy making in China, thus further complete the monetary policy theory system, improve monetary policy effectiveness, and establish optimized, scientific, and effective System of Macro-economic Adjustment. |
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