The Research Of Spillover Effect Of Internatinal Trade Among "One Belt One Road"Countries

Since the reform and opening up,especially after China joined the WTO,our country,with its export-oriented economic growth model,leverages international trade in its ever-expanding international market to prop up half of China's economy.On the one hand,our country has maintained the "double surplus" in the balance of payments for a long period of time,so that international trade accounts for more and more of China's GDP while at the same time deepening China's dependence on international market demand.At present,the economic development of our country has entered a new normal.After the financial crisis,the drastic reduction of the demand in the international market has posed a severe challenge to our export-oriented economic development model.Against this backdrop,China has put forward the strategic vision of "the Belt and Road".This strategy aims at deepening the trade between the regions and deepening the economic and trade cooperation among countries along the "One Belt and One Road",looking for large-scale export products in our country way out.With the implementation and continuous promotion of the implementation of various policies,our country and its neighboring countries will develop closer and deeper trade and cooperative relations,which will mean that our country's international trade will face a more complicated international environment.Therefore,this article will use empirical methods to demonstrate the trade ties among the countries of the "Belt and Road" and give policy suggestions on how to deal with the grim situation of international trade confronting China at this stage.First of all,based on the theory,this paper reviews the existing classic international trade theory,the mainstream trade theory model and trade related literature,summarizes the four trade drivers of labor,resources,capital and technology and the two major trade channels of price channel and income channel Spill channels.Secondly,the four kinds of trade drivers are related to two kinds of trade spillover channels,and the mechanism of how one country's trade drivers influence the international trade of other countries through the spillover channel is theoretically deduced.Finally,select appropriate metrics for each spill channel to quantify the intensity of the spillover effects generated in that channel.In the empirical part of this paper,macro-monthly data from 1999 to 2016 are selected as a sample to build a GVAR empirical model,and the stability of the model is verified through co-integration test and robustness test.Then,through the impulse response function and variance decomposition method,the existence of overflow channel and the source channel are analyzed.The empirical part mainly gives the following conclusions: First,a country can indeed have a spillover effect on the trade of its own country and other countries through price channels and income channels,and the spillover effect transmitted by different spillover channels tends to have a tendency.For example,The impact of price channels on exports is greater,and the impact of income channels on imports is greater.Second,in the direction of spillover effect,which often overflows from developed countries to developing countries and the geopolitical advantages are not clearly reflected in the analysis of sources of spillover sources,the greatest source of influence is not It must point to countries with geographical proximity;and when a country spills over other countries,the countries with the most overflowing rivals are often not geographically close countries.Third,there is a clear difference in the intensity of spillover between developed and developing countries.Developed countries tend to have higher net spillover values than developing countries,ie developed countries tend to have more spillover effects.Therefore,in the field of international trade,western developed countries often have the right to speak and control.Comprehensive theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the face of the harsh international environment and the possible opportunities brought by the "Belt and Road" strategy,this article on how to face the more complex international environment made the following two suggestions: First,to maintain a stable exchange rate,Continue export-oriented economic development model.According to the analysis of empirical results,the price channel can have a significant spillover effect on domestic export variables in the two spillover channels.Therefore,to continue to develop the export-oriented economy,the RMB should be stable.Second,promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and deepening the supply-side reform will help China shift from the bottom-end processing chain to the high-end technology transfer in the international trade industry chain.