A Study On The Trade Effect Of "The Belt And Road" Construction On The Domestic Areas Along The Line

"The belt and road"initiative aims to transform the geopolitical proximity advantages and economic complementary advantages of our country to practical cooperation,and build the basic framework of interconnection to serve the sustained economic development of China and other countries along the line."The belt and road"can not only enhance economy and trade between China and the countries along the BRI,and change the existing regional trade pattern,but also speed up the allocation of factor markets and effectively alleviate the pressure of the unbalanced development of central and western regions of China.The regions along the BRI in China actually are located in the two poles of trade differentiation.It is important and necessary to study the trade effect of"The belt and road"to the regions along the line.This study is devoted to finish off two problems.One is the degree of BRI’s average and dynamic trade effect in domestic areas along the BRI.The other is the regional heterogeneity of the trade effect in domestic areas along the BRI.Therefore,Selecting the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2018 and applying to Difference-in-Differences model and propensity score matching,the paper empirical tests on the policy effect of BRI’s foreign trade growth in domestic areas along the BRI.The results show that there does has a positive effect on the development of foreign trade in domestic areas along the BRI,which can increase the scale of import and export trade by about 0.45%and 0.25%each year.But the boosting effect has no dynamic stability,also is not the result of the joint action of all regions of domestic areas along the BRI.The increasing of foreign trade mainly depends on the promotion effect of area along the Southeast in China,and the marginal driving effect of BRI in areas along the West and northeast in China has not been shown yet.In addition,There are also differences between import and export trade about the trade effect of BRI in domestic areas along the BRI,which has more obvious policy promotion effect on import with not significantly relying on tax,information and other policies.On the contrary,the real growth rate of domestic import trade is second behind the export trade by other factor’s influence in domestic areas along the BRI.The main contribution of this paper is to classify 30 provinces of China into the experimental group and control group of DID model according to vision and action,which studies the trade effect of BRI in domestic areas along the BRI from the whole to the part.It is conducive to solve the problem of spatial limitations of focusing research perspective on single region or countries along the BRI.Meanwhile,this paper introduces the year dummy variable of the k~thh year to describe the dynamic effect of BRI on the foreign trade in domestic areas along the BRI.The comprehensive characteristics of the average effect,dynamic effect and heterogeneous effect of BRI on the domestic regions along the line are fully considered.