| In the past few years,China-Europe railways has grown from nonexistence to existence.It has developed very fast.The number for China-Europe railways has already increased from 17 in 2011 to 1703 in 2016.According to document"Construction development planning to China-Europe railway",its number will increased to 5000 in 2020.As in international trade transportation,railway is a feeding measure of shipping.Therefore,sea-railway combined transportation is a key object in the previous study.However,because China-Europe railway has long haul,high frequency and large capacity,it has become the independent trade mode.China-Europe railway enriches China-Europe trade transportation mode and measure.It has a series of impacts on the shipping system which currently holds an absolute advantage.Therefore,it is necessary to study on these impacts in the context of the complementary and competitive forces among the different transport modes available to accommodate China-Europe trade flows.Firstly,we aim at the attributive characteristics of China-Europe trade cargo and then calculating China-Europe trade cargo value and its time value.Based on the transport mode utility,we construct mode-choice model of China-Europe trade cargo.Afterwards,based on Clarkson data,port statistical yearbook and UN Comtrade,we divided cargo types into 9 groups,and statistically analyze mode split in different cargo types.And then we calibrate parameters in the mode choice model.We also based on the transport cost and transport time parameters in utility functions to get cost elasticity and time elasticity and value of time in different cargo types.Secondly,we consider the cargo value timeliness and inventory cost,and construct generalized cost function of China-Europe trade cargo.Generalized cost function divided transport cost into money cost that shipper payed,reduction of goods value over time and capital opportunity cost or money value.Afterwards,we hypothesize cargo value is uniformly declining over time.Meanwhile,we calculate cargo depreciation value based on period of validity and time value of different cargo types.According to loan interest rates and transit time,we can calculate lost money value.Transport time includes port waiting time,in-vehicle time,and loading and unloading time.Afterwards,in order to analyze china-Europe trade cargo route selection and mode choice between origin and destination,we construct rail and shipping super network.According to the speed and freight of rail and ship,we calculate generalized transport cost in the real link.Due to loading and unloading freight and time,we calculate mode choice behavior of different cargo types using shortest path search.Finally,we divided origins of China-Europe railway in China into 20 traffic zones by provinces.We calculate generalized transport cost in different zones.Then we process sensitive analysis to analyze the impact of cargo value and transport time.Consequently,we.analyze the advantages of China-Europe railway in China-Europe trade and its impact to China-Europe shipping. |
