The Study On Pricing Of Soybean Income Insurance In Heilongjiang Province

Soybean is one of the important economic crops in our country,which is an important basic and strategic material for the national economy and people's livelihood.Heilongjiang province is a major soybean producing area in China,and from 1999 to 2016,the average output of the soybean accounted for 36.21% of the national average yield.In the past two years,in response to the national "two areas construction" and "major oil-bearing crops production" development strategy,Heilongjiang province attaches great importance to the soybean production,which established the soybean experimentsite area that used to plant corn and improved the soybean subsidies.These actions greatly arouse the enthusiasm of farmers' planting.However,with the expansion of soybean planting area and the change of production and management mode,the current soybean insurance can not meet the needs of farmers' risk management.Based on this,this paper proposes that Heilongjiang province should develop the soybean income insurance,which can guarantee the natural risk and compensate for the loss of income caused by the fluctuation of market price.First,this paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of soybean income insurance in Heilongjiang province.Then,the article takes Harbin?Qiqihar? Jiamusi? Heihe?Suihuafive major soybean producing areas' soybean yields and futures price data in 1999-2015 for example,by mixed copulas?EM-BFGS algorithm and monte carlo simulation experiments,and respectively calculate the five places' soybean income insurance rates.Based on the rates,the article computes the soybean income insurance coverage and the premium.Finally,according to the development history and experience of soybean income insurance in the United States,the policy of promoting soybean income insurance in Heilongjiang province is proposed.The innovation points of this paper are summarized as follows:firstly,the research object is unique,in order to provide a more comprehensive risk guarantee for the large area of soybean planting areas,the five soybean main producing areas in Heilongjiang province were selected as the research object.And the rate is determined precisely to the city level,compared with the national "one-size-fits-all" insurance premium,which is more accurate.secondly,research methods are novel,this paper adopts mixture Copula model to calculate soybean income insurance rates,mixture Copula function mixes different single Copula functions together and assigns weights to different copulas,which can better describe variable structure.The method is more objective and the premium conforms to the actual situation.In the end,the study of the pricing of income insurance has a strong application value,which conforms to the goal of establishing a multi-level agricultural insurance system.The accurate pricing provides technical support for the scientific long-term development of income insurance,and provides the pricing basis for the insurance companies to promote income insurance.