The Research On The Trade Potential Of Agricultural Products Between China And CEEC

With the rapid advancing of the "Belt and Road" initiative,the Central and Eastern European countries(CEEC)have become increasingly prominent in the pattern of China's foreign trade,especially in terms of agricultural products;there is great trade potential between the two sides.The process of agricultural cooperation is accelerating.In this context,this paper studies the trade potential of agricultural products between China and CEEC.Based on the relevant references and international trade theories,the paper analyzes the status quo of agricultural products trade between China and CEEC at first.The data shows that the bilateral trade volume increased significantly,the trade surplus decreased,but China remains in absolute surplus position.From the view of the market structure,the trade in agricultural products between the two sides is concentrated in three countries in Poland,Czech and Romania.From the perspective of product structure,the trade is concentrated on a few kinds of agricultural products such as meat and egg,especially in the direction of import.Then this paper analyzes the competitiveness and complementarity of the agricultural products trade between China and CEEC by using the TC index and TCI index.In terms of competitiveness,Chinese competitive advantage is in decline,but still in an absolutely dominant position.Hungary has the fastest rise and the most competitive advantage among CEEC,animals,meat and drinks have the most competitive advantage among all agricultural products,the rest of the countries and the products do not have strong competitive advantage.In terms of complementarity,the complementarity between China and CEEC is small,and China's import complementarity is less than China's export complementarity.Only Romania,Bulgaria and Serbia have stronger import and export complementarities with China in CEEC,and only wool and other plant fibers have stronger import and export complementarities with China among all agricultural products,the rest of countries and products have poor complementarity.Finally,based on the influencing factors of agricultural trade between China and CEEC,an extended gravitation model is constructed,which shows that the total economic output and the total population have a significant promotion effect,the geographical distance and the dummy variables "EU" have a significant hindrance.China has great trade potential with Latvia,Hungary,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Montenegro,Albania,Serbia and Romania these seven countries,the trade potential between China and Lithuania,Poland,Slovakia,Croatia these four countries needs to be dug,the trade potential of China and Estonia,the Czech Republic,Slovenia,Macedonia,Bulgaria is obviously insufficient.The above analysis shows that there are many problems in the trade of agricultural products between the two sides,such as the unbalance of trade structure,the declining competitive advantage of China's export,the poor complementarity of trade between the two sides,and the deep digging of trade potential,etc.On this basis,this paper argues that we should focus on promoting the development of bilateral trade in agricultural products from the following five aspects:optimize the structure of trade and vigorously expand agricultural cooperation between the two sides;innovate export strategy to diversify the competitiveness of agricultural products export;rationally scientifically plan and enhance the complementarity of agricultural products trade comprehensively;improve the trade environment and tap the potential of agricultural trade between the two sides;build a cooperation platform and actively enrich the connotation of agricultural cooperation between the two sides.