The Real Estate Bubble Crisis Early Warning System Analysis And Design

Since the second half of 1998 when monetization of housing distribution come into force, Chinese real estate industry has been rapidly developing. Although from 2003 onwards, the central government began to exercise macro-control of the real estate industry, the housing boom in some cities did not really cool down. Until 2008, when the U.S. real estate bubble caused by the subprime mortgage crisis suddenly formed a sweeping global financial markets turmoil, the Chinese real estate industry seems to have entered the winter. More and more consumers chose to wait and see, and the trading volume sharply contracted. Many former "prime sites" give up the deposit, rather than continue to develop projects, so a lot of supply shortage. However, in 2009, the tendency of housing price reversed and picked up rapidly, which greatly exceeded almost everyone's expectations. So much pressure to buy a house that caused great panic socially.The changeful of real estate industry affects both the national economy and people's lives to a large extent. In recent years, real estate providers, experts and scholars, real estate investors, and even ordinary homebuyers are all debate on the real estate industry all the time. The greatest concern is nothing better than whether the real estate overheating, whether the bubble exists, whether the prices continue to rise or to decrease, which are all bear on the fundamental interests of the immediate problem.Real estate bubble is a theoretical issue and also a practical one. In order to guide the real estate market to a positive direction, to establish a feasible, practical and effective housing crisis early warning system is of great significance.On the basis of previous studies, through the analysis of market supply-demand relationship, the understanding of the theories of the real estate bubble and early warning system, as well as a series of mathematical analysis methods, in combination with the application of computer modeling techniques, this paper attempts to establish a effective Real Estate market bubble early warning system, which can reflect the operating characteristics of China's Real Estate Market. And then, the system is used to analyze the real estate market in Shandong Province as an example, to understand the status quo and the prospects of real estate market.