Research On Land Reserve Financing Risk

Land reserve is one of the important ways in which the government operates and develops the city.With the operation and development of the land reserve system,land reserve financing as a necessary means to obtain funds is in full swing.However due to the level of social development,economic strength,market perfection,government regulation and management capacity,etc.there are differences and laws are lagging behind leading to the shortcomings of the traditional land reserve financing model gradually appear and financing risk highlights.Four ministries jointly issued a document to request prohibit land reserve loan to banks in 2016,and it speeds up the renewal of the land reserve financing system.So it is the key issues currently that exploring the early warning mechanism of land reserve financing risk and coordinating the contradiction between local government land reserve financing demand and risks.This study takes Jiangbei district of Chongqing as an example.Around the situation of new policy,clarifying the present situation and existing problems of land reserve finance,identifying the characteristics and formation mechanism of land bank financing risk based on different perspective of the main interests,revealing the evolution mechanism of land reserve mortgage financing risk,as well as assessing synthetically land bank financing risk level to divide the risk level and determine the main influencing factors.At last,putting forward risk control measures according to local conditions,with a view to provide references for the effective settlement of risks and the realization of sustainable financing.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)By identifying the types of land reserve financing risk under different participants.It found that there are local debt risk,land financial risk and social risk in the view of government;legal risks,policy risks and operational risks in the perspective of land reserve center;credit risk,operational management risk,cash risk of financial institution.And the formation mechanism of different risks is analyzed systematically from the objective conditions,incentives,root causes and so on.(2)Through the tripartite game systematically analysis the goal,behavior,interest demands of government,northern soil storage and financial institutions on land reserve mortgage.It revealed that stakeholder always tend to benefit the party under the trade-off between profit and loss of risk,thus showing non-compliance financing and other short-term behavior.But with the increase in potential risk losses or even far higher than the comprehensive benefits of financing,it is also an inevitable trend to Withdrawal of bank loan financing model.(3)The combination of cointegration theory and comprehensive evaluation method formed land reserve financing risk assessment system.At macro level,there is no significant financing risk and short term is still within the controllable range.At micro level,it inferred that the risk of land reserve financing fluctuates slightly in the year,as well as the overall trend towards moderate risk and tends to be stable.Also there was a significant difference in the degree of risk change at all levels,among them the annual fluctuation of financial risk is greatest,credit risk overall tends to be smooth,market risk is controllable,policy and legal risk is significantly reduced.Finally,the main influencing factors of land reserve financing are total amount of financing and land transfer income ratio,sales growth rate of commercial housing,debt service rate,mortgage rate,land transfer income,the ratio of bank mortgages to total financing.(4)In principle of scientific forecasting and rational planning,reasonable choice of financing timing and the way,reunification of rights and interests,etc.through the application of AHP to decision-making of land reserve financing structure optimization,it found that under the current policy system,the optimal financing structure is land reserve fund accounted for 31.85%,land reserve trust for 22.59%,and government land reserve bonds accounted for 19.65%,project financing accounted for 25.91%.In terms of management mechanism,it should strengthen the management of land reserve financing in entire journey,establish a government bankruptcy mechanism,and complete credit evaluation indexes system.