Housing Demolition Rate And Its Impact Factors In Urban China

With the advancement of China’s housing industrialization and new pattern of urbanization,the updating speed of China’s urban housing has been growing rapidly.A lot of houses have been demolished.Demolition and construction is pervasive in the updating process in the cities.Even though this model has changed the urban look in the fastest way and driven GDP growth,it has inevitably led to resource waste and environmental pollution,which does not comply with the requirements for green and sustainable development.Therefore,a study should be conducted on the demolition of urban housings to fully understand the development rule,influence factors and trend of housing demolition rate so as to provide reference for the industrial policies and planning.First,this paper uses the annual reduction area and the year-end real housing construction area of the urban housing between 2002 and 2013 to have straight forward calculation of the demolition rate;at the same time,it uses the census in 2000 and 2010 to have indirect calculation of the current status of the demolition rate of urban housing to get the panel data of annual demolition rate of various provinces between 2002 and2013 and the two-dimensional distribution data of the cumulative demolition rate based on the construction year and floor distribution between 2000 and 2010.By analyzing these two set of data,this paper will find the current characteristics of the demolition rate of urban housing.Then based on the panel data of demolition rate and by using the fixed effect model and the mixed regression model,this paper studies the influence factors,such as economy,population,natural,and policy of the demolition rate to obtain the demolition rate in variation with housing investment volume and housing prices and the provincial differences in terms of the influence of natural conditions.This paper also analyzes the reasons for these rules and differences.Last,based on the demolition rate of the two-dimensional distribution data,this paper uses the Gamma distribution model to forecast the demolition rate under two different scenarios of the expected lifetime of the buildings to obtain the status quo of China’s buildings and the rule of law in the change of future demolition rate along with the expected lifetime of the buildings.This paper has reached the following conclusions: between 2002 and 2013,the total demolition volume of urban housing is showing an upward trend,while the demolition rate is fluctuating;the abolition rate in the eastern area is higher than that in the western area and the demolition rate of the dilapidated and low-rise buildings is relatively higher;the external environmental factor is the main reason for the change of demolition rate;the demolition rate has a prominent rise in the starting period and rapid development period of the economy,but as the economy reaches a high level,the demolition rate will slow down and even gradually decrease;in the areas with poor natural conditions,the demolition rate is also high;in the upcoming two decades,the overall demolition volume in China will continue to rise;the extension of building lifetime will slow down the upward trend of the demolition rate and will not lower it.Only by increasing the housing investment efficiency and reducing industrial energy consumption can we fundamentally decrease the demolition rate.