The Research Between Quality And Survival Time Of Manufacturing Export Product

The export duration time is an important index,showing two countries’ trade relationship.This article analyzes the affect of manufacturing export product quality on export duration time.The data of this article comes from CEPII-BACI database,2003-2012,HS6 product level export trade data.At first,through the survival analysis,calculating the survival time of China 、India、England、Singapore、Japan、South Korea、Canada、Mexico、Germany,which survival time is these nine countries with America’s trade time.it finds that the survival time is not so long,for example median survival time between Singapore and America is 2.01,Mexico is 2.18,South Korea is 2.46,England is 2.55,Germany is 2.73,India is 2.73,Japan is 2.85,Canada is 3.26,China is 4;among the mean survival time between nine countries with America,China is the longest,5.03,Japan is 3.89,India is 3.56,Canada is 3.55,Germany is 3.29,South Korea is 3.27,England is 3.11,Mexico is 2.94,Singapore is 2.58.Secondly,by studying the quality model of Hallak(2006),we compute the product quality by the unite price、per GDP and the distance between two countries.We use Cox proportional hazard model and Cloglog model to analyze influencing factors.Only taking the product quality into consideration,the result is remarkable,the product of higher quality will keep a long survival time,and the lower quality product is on the contrary.Besides,the article also takes the exchange’s fluctuation ratio、the first value of trade、per GDP growth rate、import country’s GDP and the category of export goods into the model to calculate and analyze the affect.The result is as below:exchange’s fluctuation ratio has a negative effect with the hazard function;the first value of trade has a positive effect with the survival function;per GDP growth rate has a positive effect with the hazard function,which means if per GDP growth rate becomes bigger,it will do bad on the relationship;GDP has a strong、positive effect on the survival time;the kind of export product has a negative effect on the survival time.