Research On Analysis And Prediction Of Natural Gas Consumption Demand Of Guangxi

Guangxi is scarce in natural gas resources,and the development of natural gas is in the initial stage.With the economic development of Guangxi and the accelerating pace of urbanization,industrialization,natural gas consumption demand market in the whole province is confronting great change.Studying on the analysis of natural gas consumption demand of Guangxi is significance to developing the natural gas industry and economy.This paper establishes a forecasting model for natural gas consumption demand by used the method of system dynamics,the market consumption theory and prediction theory to predict the change trend of natural gas consumption demand in the future years in Guangxi.First of all,the present situation of natural gas consumption in Guangxi is presented from such aspects as natural gas development history,source,consumption market,price and the utilization policy of natural gas.This paper analyzes influencing factors of natural gas demand,such as natural gas supply,policy,economy,urbanization and so on.Then,this paper gives a general overview of present population and economic situation.According to the result of analyzing,there is population subsystem,economy subsystem,natural gas supply/demand subsystem.The forecasting model for natural gas consumption demand is built with these subsystems,and the forecasting model validity is verified.Then,according to various scenarios make a prediction change trend of natural gas consumption demand.And model parameter sensitivity is tested.At last,the result of forecasting is compared with the government expected,and some countermeasures are put forward to promote the healthy,sustained and effective development of natural gas consumption market in Guangxi.A lot of energy is essential to development completely economy.What’s more,in order to protect the environment,it is important significance to effectively use natural gas and other clean energy for the healthy development of Guangxi.