Value Evaluation Model Of Coal Resources Development Investment Project Based On Fuzzy Real Options And Its Application

The development and investment of coal resources is affected by economic,policy and technology and many other uncertainty factors,how to grasp these uncertainties and reasonably avoid the risks is the key problem for the decision of developing and investing coal resources.Traditional investment decision methods have ignored the value of investment opportunity that brought by the uncertainty factors,so that the value of the coal resources development investment project didn't consistent with the actual;While due to the change rule of the uncertainty factors is hard to describe,the real option methods,which including these uncertain factors,is limited in practical application and is harder to applied if the uncertainty is ambiguous.Therefore,the problem of the development and investment of coal resources under the fuzzy real option method is studied in this paper.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The real option characteristics of the development and investment of coal resources is analyzed,as well as the formation mechanism of the value of the development and investment projects of coal resources that based on real options is revealed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the development and investment of coal resources and the uncertainty factors,the study indicates that the process of the development and investment of coal resources under the uncertainty factors is a dynamic flexible management process,which contains the value of real option,and points out that the value of coal resources development investment project consists of two parts of the value of net present value and flexibility.(2)Combining the fuzzy mathematics theory and real option theory,and using projectile fuzzy number to represent the underlying asset price volatility uncertainty,the fuzzy risk neutral probability is deduced and the value of it is an interval value,On the basis of this,the value evaluation model of coal resource development investment project based on fuzzy real option is established,which solves the problem of uncertainty and fuzziness in the evaluation of coal resource development investment project value.(3)Taking an actual development and investment project of coal resources as an example,the net present value?the value of traditional real option as well as the value of fuzzy real option is calculated,meanwhile,the value of different confidence levels and K parabolic type fuzzy number was considered in the fuzzy real option value calculation,then the option value interval value and investment strategy of different parameters were obtained.The above research results have an important guiding significance for the evaluation of the investment value of China's coal resources development.