| Risk management has become the lifeline and core competitiveness of insurance companies,and scientific risk-prevention is the premise of stable operation of insurance companies and the best means of capital cost management.Compared with the insurance risk,credit risk and market risk,the insurance company still lacks effective means to manage the operational risk.We use historical literature,questionnaire and brainstorming methods to obtain the influencing factors of insurance companies’ operation risk: contractor experience,experience,claims assessor decentralization,business volume,low loss adjusters,random inspection,claims underwriting control level,control level,fraud detection,economic cycle,fraud and so on 11 main analysis indexes,financial policy,insurance policy,employee awareness,sense of leadership,position change and so on6 derivative indexes included.Bayesian network model is used to analyze and calculate the data value in the questionnaire by using GeNIE2.0 software,In the probabilistic computation of the Bayesian network model,we can get the operation risk of insurance companies the biggest cause chain: insurer experience,business volume,cheat compensation,financial policy,insurance policy,claims assessor experience,random checks,industry the type of the 8 factors,that is the most likely impact of operational risk factors.The operation risk control system of insurance company is constructed through maximum cause chain.Using the cemetery insurance case of A property insurance company in Hangzhou,we can get the insurance company’s operational risk prevention programs and countermeasures based on the constructed Bayesian network model.It is proved that the Bayesian network model can help insurance companies to identify the main factors that affect operational risk,so as to help insurance companies to prevent operational risks. |
