Simulation Of City Land-use Changes By Vector-based Cellular Automata

Cellular Automata (CA), a grid dynamical model with disperse time and space, is widely used in simulating and predicting land-use change and develop of city because of its ability to simulate the evolutionary process of space. Existing models are mostly lack in express of space-time variation, stage and regional characters of city planning policy, and mostly focus on regular grid. In fact, irregular grid is more simular to economy and spontaneous community in shape.NNSF of China, "irregularity vector CA and multi-agent model research considering expansion mode of city" (41671385),focus on irregular vector CA to make up the deficiency above. This paper is supported by the project, start with the similarity between irregular cell and geographic graticule, analyzed the applicability of hierarchy spatial reasoning in cell dividing, and then use it to divide the cell. Then build the CA model and verified it with an example. The main research contents and results as follows:(1)Summarized and reviewed the evolution of CA,including its research situation and insufficiency, explained the fundamental of CA.(2) From the angle of geographic lattice to inspect the irregular CA, then use hierarchy spatial reasoning to divide the cell space. Proposed the dividing method, then work out the results of irregular cell that this research will use.(3) Qualitatively and quantitatively descripted the space factors' influence on land-use change, reclassified the factors into nature, traffic, city pattern and city planning.Reclassified the factors,especially the city planning factor's effect on land-use change.Then concluded these 4 factors into static and dynamic constraint. Using binary logic regression,land-use transfer matrix,planning parameter to extract the rules.(4) Take Nanjing as research area, using multi-phase land-use data, comprehensive planning data and traffic data to verify the model. Simulated the land-use change of Nanjing in 2000 and 2005, then testify the accuracy by kappa coefficient.