Scenario Simulation Of Intensive Land Use In Beijing

Human beings cannot consume land unlimitedly due to the reason that it has characteristic of limination.With the growing economic and population in the demand for land,the best way to solve this issue is the intensive land use.Intensive land use can get the maximum benefit from the unite land area.Therefore,it could develop the social and reach sustainable and harmonious development of the population,economic and land use.China has advocated the intensive land use for a long time,but construction land demand is still growing.Despite the continuous improvement of intensive land level in Chinese major cities,the confliction between population and land use still quite prominent.In this case,we need to analyze the change trends of regional intensive land use and simulate the future scenarios.Trying to find the most rational land use intensity based on Theory of diminishing returns and to analyze the livable degree under the most intensity situation.It can play a role in analysis and guiding the recent land use and provide supports for the policy decisions.In this paper,we use system dynamics methord to simulate the population,economic and land use of Beijing.According to numbers which simulated by models,the intensity of construction land can be calculated.By simulating and forecasting the intensity of population,economic and land use in Beijing from 2000 to 2100,optimal solution can be reached.Meanwhile,we also analyze the ivable degree under the most intensity situation.Trying to find the most livable intensive land use patterns and providing supports for the policy decisions.First,proposing the reasons,backgrounds and meanings of research.Discuss the research status of intensive land use.Analyse the inadequate of researches and propse the intensive land use simulation based on system dymics methord.Second,construct the indicator system of intensive land use and determin the calculation methords.Third,according to the analysis of social,economic and land use situation of Beijing,construct the system dynamics model of Beijing intensive land use.Find the dynamic and mathematical relationships in the model.Estimate the parameters and test the model.Fourth,running and analyzing the model.Offering different simulation scenarios based on optimization and chooseing the best scenario.Finally,achieve the role of decision supports based on simulation results and policy suggestions.This paper also takes the influences of related policies to land use into consideration,such as One-child policy,Planning volume rate,land use policy and so on.Therefore,this paper has studied the social complex giant system comprehensive.Offering the reasonabe decision supports and providing the scientific basis for land management.