Research On The Crowding-out Effect Of Housing Price Rise To The Real Economy

Since the 1998 reform of the housing system,the abidance stable and rapidly developing of the real estate industry,housing prices rose rapidly,especially first-tier cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou)housing prices soared,attracted wide attention of the society.For the development of the real economy of the city,housing prices rose to its advantage or disadvantage,whether there is a housing price increases on the real economy out?What is the mechanism and path of crowding-out effect?Based on this,this paper will be based on the western theory of supply and demand,production contract curve,Pareto optimal economic analysis method,crowding out effect interaction between investment,investment in real estate development investment in housing prices and real estate development of the real economy from the view of the discussion of these problems.Specifically,this paper attempts to open the investment through the housing prices and real estate,real estate development investment on the real economy there is crowding-out effect,the establishment of housing price conduction mechanism of the crowding-out effect on the real economy,in order to provide the local government policy in maintaining the healthy development of the real estate industry and the real economy reference.This paper reviews the previous research in the literature,and for the first time in Hubei Province as an example,analyses the situation of the real economy and the real estate industry development in Hubei Province,through theoretical constructs housing prices resulting from the transmission mechanism of the crowding out effect on the real economy.In the empirical part of this paper,first of all,housing prices affect the investment of real estate development were analyzed by 2006-2015 year data of Wuhan City,then using the panel data of 12 main city of Hubei Province,after LSDV inspection,using random effects regression analysis of the relationship between real estate investment and investment of the real economy.Empirical findings:(1)housing prices will not directly promote the increase in investment in real estate development,but will be affected by land prices and land supply to increase investment in real estate development.(2)investment in real estate development will have a crowding out effect on the real economy,and the crowding-out effect is more obvious.(3)in the three industry,the real estate development investment will squeeze out the effect of the second industry,and the impact on the first,the three industry is not significant.The main conclusion:housing prices will be through the "housing prices,real estate investment,increase investment in the real economy to reduce the conduction mechanism of the crowding-out effect on the real economy,the essence of the transmission mechanism is due to the negative economic externalities caused by excessive growth of real estate investment.And the crowding out effect is not only in Hubei,but also for the whole country.At the same time,due to the rise in housing prices led to the development of the real economy crowding out the development of the situation is controllable.