Progressive Revel Delay Retirement Age Scheme Design And Research

With the development of Chinese economy and society,people’s living standard is rapidly increasing,the average life expectancy increased year by year,the birth rate,growth rate,the mortality rate has been declining.Resulting in Chinese old-aging population is increasing working-age population is declining,urban balance of payments pressures basic pension insurance fund increases.More and more of Chinese existing retirement system is not well suited to the needs of modern economic and social development.Whereby the reform of the statutory retirement age system is desperately needed.This paper aims to study the retirement age to formulate relevant policies to provide reference for government departments.This paper briefly describes the background,purpose and meaning,and introduces the concepts and theories of pension insurance and retirement age.Learning from the related research of scholars at home and abroad the implementation of Japan and the United States delay retirement plan.Simply summarize current three strategies to deal with the pension shortage of urban workers.Secondly,according to the current system of Chinese urban workers pension pooling account is PAYG.An actuarial model of the balance of payments deficit for the aged is established.Using the population shift algorithm to predict the number of urban insurant and the number of retired insurant.Through the gray model,the regression analysis model and the exponential smoothing model predict the average income of urban workers respectively.The combination forecasting model is established by the method of variation to define the weighting coefficient.Getting the average income forecast data of urban workers in the future.To calculate the next fifteen years of Chinese urban workers pension payments deficit.And on this basis,reference to the delayed retirement age guidance document and reform proposals formulated by the major conferences of our country.Fully study the delay retirement age schemes,which are recommended by domestic and foreign scholars.Designing two delayed retirement schemes based on two ways of "conservative" and "radical".Under the two different retirement age assumptions,recalculating of the balance of urban workers pension account.And analyzing the results of measuring,summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of the two schemes.Finally,proposed six policy suggestions:adopting progressive revel retirement age scheme with a conservative approach,implementing flexible retirement system,establishing the mechanism of wage growth rate higher than the pension growth rate,promoting employment for older adults,soliciting opinions from the masses and strengthen public opinion propaganda and revising the relevant laws and regulations.Last but not least,summarizing the main work and shortcomings of this paper and the further research direction.