Study On The Early Warning Threshold Of Grain Production Quantity Security

With the continuous development of economic globalization,the impact on the domestic market from the international market continues to increase.Production,import and inventory increase on our country grain market.Grain production structure is unbalanced,some varieties of stage excess,while some varieties of external dependence is growing.In this context,it is of great significance to analyze and study the problem of grain production security.In this paper,based on the number of grain production security as the research object,through the combination of theoretical and empirical methods for evaluation and early warning,the present status of China's grain supply and demand,put forward to strengthen the policy recommendations for China's grain production security.This article embarks from the grain production security situation and historical analysis of grain production security,analyses the food production,consumption and trade,it is concluded that the factors affecting the security of food production,and solve the influence of cultivated land per capita grain production security threshold and food security reserve threshold.From grain production,consumption,price,supply and demand balance point of view,the establishment of grain output growth rate,food self-sufficiency rate,corn self-sufficiency rate,rice self-sufficiency rate,wheat grain self-sufficiency rate,the actual price index and grain consumption fluctuation coefficient of 7 indicators,which form number of grain production security evaluation index system.Based on the historical data and theoretical analysis,separately for each alarm indicator alarm threshold division,divided into no alarm,mild alarm,moderate alarm,serious alarm,which divided into positive and negative alarm on behalf of the grain production.The alarm threshold,analysis of the warning index after China's reform and opening up alarm degree,obtains the grain yield rate,corn self-sufficiency rate,rice self-sufficiency rate,wheat self-sufficiency rate is most likely to occur with alarm.The weights of the 7 alarm indexes are determined by the complex correlation coefficient method,and the alarm values are assigned respectively.Based on the analysis of the integrated system,the warning threshold of the comprehensive coefficient is divided and the comprehensive index is divided.The use of comprehensive indicators of the degree of alarm in the history of the year to analyze the overall situation of the alarm,there are 21 years of no alarm,4 years of mild alarm,4 years of moderate alarm and 3 years of serious alarm from1984 to 2015.The occurrence of moderate alarm and serious alarm in the year is mainly due to the fluctuation of grain production and the imbalance of grain production.The result of comprehensive index evaluation is relatively close to the historical grain supply and demand imbalance,which indicates that the establishment of the index system is consistent with historical facts.Finally,the comprehensive research results,proposed the establishment of functional areas of food production,technology upgrading and optimizing the structure of grain production,the implementation of the agricultural strategy of going out and improve the monitoring and early warning system and policy suggestions,to improve the level of comprehensive security of grain production in China.