Research On Real Estate Systemic Risk

Over the past decade,the real estate industry,as a pillar industry in China,has become a vitalmeans for the government to stimulate economic growth through fixed asset investment.At thesame time,the excessive-priced houses have caused serious social problems.With the frequentlyenhanced regulatory policies,the prices of house have been unable to enter a downward spiral.Some people lost faith in the real estate control policies,even think that the real estate systemicrisk will never appear.With the changes of the macroeconomic environment,the tightening of realestate policies,the expansion of land supply,the gradual diminishing of demographic dividend andthe improved relationship between market supply and demand,the turning point for house pricesto fall from the high position may unexpectedly come.Meanwhile,the chronic irrationalexuberance in real estate industry has aroused our concern about the impact on related industries,the financial system and even the macroscopic issues owing to the price fluctuation in real estate.This paper in-depth analysis of the status of the basic face with the policy of real estate trade of our country,and with the influence of various risk factors of the real estate market,based on the existing literature at home and abroad,the development features of the risk of real estate combined with economic district of Shenyang City,to the identification of key risk factors from the analysis of the real estate market risk factors,and then to the risk prevention strategy formulation.thoroughly elaborated Shenyang City real estate risk.From the perspective of political risk,economic risk,market risk,natural risk 4 level risk factor,elaborated in detail the risk factors of the real estate market,on the basis of the real estate system risk factor for effective analysis.Based on analysis of the real estate system of risk factors,according to the risk evaluation index system construction principles and procedures to determine the risk evaluation index system of Shenyang City real estate market system.Then use expert survey method and AHP to determine the weight of evaluation indexes.Using analytic hierarchy process fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model for further evaluation of the real estate market risk.Thirdly,analyses the actual situation of the Shenyang market,and based on the collection of questionnaires and finishing,all be relevant data needed for risk assessment,using multilevel analysis method to calculate the weight of each evaluation index,then based on the theory of evidence to identify the key risk factors of the Shenyang market,in line with the actual situation at the same time,also verified the rationality of the evaluation index system and risk evaluation model.From the risk prevention and control theory,put forward the basic train of thought,from basic methods and concrete measures for effective prevention of real estate of systemic risk,and focus on specific measures of establishing the mechanism of prevention,up to a certain extent,ease the resolve,reduce and control the risk,but not completely eliminate the risk of.No there is no risk of the real estate market,therefore,must face up to the existence of the risk,at the same time,this paper proves that the real estate systematic risk of contagion effect on local government finances,financial system and the macro economic sector by empirical analysis.On this basis,this paper believes that long-term mechanism must be established real estate regulation,and macro prudential supervision,expanding the cut the risk of real estate.