| China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly,and promotes its upstream and downstream industry development,promotes national economic growth and employment,become one of the important areas of China’s economic development.However,housing prices and real estate vacancy rate become high frequently,having a negative impact on social and economic development.China’s Government spares no effort to take measures to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market,but the results are often deviated from expectations.In the policy mix adopted by the government,monetary policy is one of the important policy tools used.The change of monetary policy has a great impact on the development of real estate industry,which plays an important role in regulating house prices.As the regional economic development in China is quite different,the same monetary policy on the different regions of the impact of housing prices vary.Therefore,in-depth analysis of the impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices is an important issue worthy of study.Although a large number of literatures use a variety of methods to analyze the impact of monetary policy on house prices from different perspectives,but did not find the analysis of monetary policy on the indirect impact of the literature.This paper attempts to conduct an indepth study of this perspective.First,through the theoretical analysis of the monetary policy in the real estate market transmission mechanism,found that monetary policy can be indirectly affected by the real estate market prices;secondly,for the effective access to monetary policy on the direct and indirect regional heterogeneity,Based on the housing stock-flow model,the panel data vector autoregressive model(PVAR)is used to carry out empirical research using the quarterly data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)from 2006 to 2015.Finally,according to the empirical analysis,China’s monetary policy on the direct and indirect impact of housing prices in different regions,that the local government in the central bank monetary policy on the basis of adjustment need to consider the impact of various factors,so that the real estate market healthy and orderly development.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1.the direct impact of interest rate changes on housing prices in the eastern and western regions is relatively large,and the impact of credit changes on house prices in the central region is relatively large.2.Loose monetary policy will indirectly lead to short-term housing prices invarious regions,but the impact of different regions of the real estate market there are differences.3.The tightening of interest rate policy will indirectly lead to the decline in short-term housing prices in various regions,but the impact of different regions of the real estate market there are differences. |
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