The Mechanism And Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Export Behavior

Since the financial crisis,China’s export growed in 2010 and 2011,respectively,31%and 22%of the short "V"-type rebound,since 2012,export growth slowed year by year,from 2012 to 2014 exports 7.9%,7.8%and 6%,respectively,and negative growth of 1.8%in 2015,exports of goods in the first half of 2016 fell 2.1%over the same period.At the same time,as the main export market of China’s developed economies,the trend of economic recovery steady forward,the demand side of the good momentum and China’s export growth slowdown parallel phenomenon.China is a big trading nation,the export trade has been an important engine to promote economic development,export growth slowdown or even negative growth will seriously affect China’s economic growth,in this context,we believe that the demand side of the good momentum and China’s export growth slowdown parallel to the phenomenon of the causes of the study.On the other hand,the Chinese government has launched a series of macroeconomic policies,such as the "RMB4 trillion economic stimulus plan" and the corresponding supporting measures,"Reducing the Rate of Interest","Industrial 4.0" and "Internet +" in response to the crisis.Which effectively reduces the negative impact of the crisis on China’s economy,on the other hand also exacerbates the policy uncertainty.In fact,enterprises are highly sensitive to changes in macroeconomic policies,corporate executives have the national macroeconomic policy as an important consideration for the company’s development strategy.Higher uncertainties will result in larger waiting-for-options values,where firms delay investment and hiring labor,and the decline in interest rates,wages,and prices can only have limited short-term effects on slowing the economy,implying that macroeconomic Policy interventions in the real economy can only have a small impact(Bloom,2009;Carriere-Swallow&Cespedes,2013).Therefore,this paper transfers the research perspective from the export market on behalf of the demand side to the domestic macroeconomic environment on behalf of the supply side.It is pointed out that under the circumstance that the export market demand is increasing steadily,the increase of domestic economic policy uncertainty is the result of export growth Slow down one of the important reasons.This paper uses the comparative static analysis in the framework of heterogeneous firm theory to arrive at the core theoretical hypothesis that the increase in export policy uncertainty will result in a decline in both export participation and export volume.Afterwards,this paper uses the microenterprise sample in the Chinese industrial enterprise database and the municipal party secretary replacement number to statistically analyze the export status and policy uncertainty of the enterprise respectively.Based on the theoretical model and the current situation analysis,this paper uses Heckman’s selection model to verify the hypothesis,using the matching data of the unbalanced panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises database from 2001 to 2007 and the database of the municipal Party committee secretary of the People’s Republic of China.Theoretical Assumptions Consistent Robustness Results.At the end of this paper,based on the conclusions put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions,in order to maintain steady growth in exports to provide some policy reference.