A Study On The Flexible Management Of USD/RMB Exchange Rate

From 2015,the exchange rate formation mechanism reform,August 11th to officially included in the SDR(Special Drawing Rights),combined with the recent fed interest-rate rise to the impact of the RMB exchange rate,RMB exchange rate in this more than a year since a sharp fluctuations,has become the focus of public attention.Economic situation is complicated and changeful,more and more unstable factors,if lack of flexible exchange rates,the central bank will lack for the operation of monetary policy space,the government will be before the crisis to deal with lack of means.In addition,the increase of the RMB exchange rate flexibility would improve the yuan's long-term unilateral moves,a two-way exchange rate fluctuations will be more conducive to reflect the real foreign exchange supply situation,more can guarantee the independence and effectiveness of macroeconomic policy.Any reform needs to be gradual and appropriate.This paper analyzes the origin of exchange rate elasticity and analyzes the importance of moderate exchange rate flexibility.In the argument whether the current exchange rate flexibility of 2%reasonable process,not only from the economic fundamentals to argue,also using the method of probability and statistics,through the solstice on 17 March 2014,February 20,2017,analyzing the data of both comprehensive points out 2%of the exchange rate flexibility is not modest.In order to further analysis of the current exchange rate elasticity is moderate,the author based on VAR method,using steady EWMA model,under the confidence level of 99%and 99.74%,respectively,estimated the flexibility of the exchange rate,it is concluded that the current exchange rate flexibility range of 2.23%to 2.45%.Finally,we conclude that China needs to further strengthen the theory of exchange rate flexibility.