U.s. Dollar Exchange Rate Fluctuation And Trend Forecast

In the context of the post-financial crisis, the dominant position of dollar as an international currency has been widely questioned. U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations would affect the stability of international financial markets, the settlement of international trade as well as reserve asset structure management of countries. While, it is confirmed theoretically and practically that the process of exchange rate determination is complicated. With the economic situation changes, new features appear in dollar exchange rate movements. Therefore, researches on dollar exchange rate need to keep pace with the times.The research purpose of this thesis is to predict the medium-term trend of U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Firstly, it conducts quantitative analysis of U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations under the Jamaica system, explores the root causes of changes in exchange rates. Then empirical analysis carries out to predict the trend of U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, based on empirical findings, the paper analyzes the effects of continuing dollar devaluation on the world economy development.The research can be divided into six parts. After introducing exchange rate theories with significant influence, the third chapter analyses the fluctuations of dollar exchange rate under Jamaica system, from the perspective of a number of economic factors. Then it explores the main reasons for changes in dollar exchange rate in six historical periods. It is found that there are different economic reasons for exchange rate volatility in different periods and their importance also changes. The forth chapter proceeds with forecasting analysis on exchange rate fluctuation. The results showed that in the next decade, the dollar depreciation will continue, but the rate of decline is relative moderate. The fifth chapter explores the influence of continuing dollar devaluation on world economic development, including the effects on USA, Europe, Asia and China. The sixth chapter summarizes the research and gives the prospect of future improvements.