Early Warning Research On Financial Risk Of GEM Manufacturing Enterprises

Since the Growth Enterprise Market listed,it is favored by investors all over the country,but as semi-annual and annual reports disclosured,the calls for high profitability and high investment value has also been gradually weakened,combined with the China's new normal,domestic economic decline in industrial adjustment under new normal pain and economic conditions,and the development of growth enterprises is not stable,scale is smaller,and lack of conscious of risk management consciousness,as well as rules and regulations are not sound,with this features makes financial risk highlight undoubtedly.It is of great significance to establish a appropriate financial risk prediction model for the growth enterprises,complete the enterprise risk management system,help enterprises to detect and solve the problem earlier,make its healthy and sustainable development in a rapidly changing economic environment.At the same time,it has important reference value for the effective guidance of the development of the enterprise market or the promotion of effective supervision by relevant financial institutions.This paper combed related research domestic and foreign scholars,on this basis,combined with the development feature and financial characteristics of the growth manufacturing enterprises,and then collected 34 pairs of data of matched manufacturing enterprises witch are selected according to the semi-annual and annual reports in 2012-2015,then combined financial indicators and non-financial indicators,which are the representative of debt paying ability,profitability and so on,the next step is determined six main facto to establish the Logistic financial risk prediction model through the normal distribution test,significance test,and factor analysis,in the end,using the 28 matched data which are regard as training sample and 6 matched data which are regard as examing sample to test the accuracy and reliability of the established model.The result shows that the inspection accuracy of the model is 91.1%and 91.7%respectively,proved that the model has a good warning effect.On this basis,this article applies the relevant data of 2015 manufacturing enterprise of the Growth Enterprise Market,do the financial early warning analysis.The results in 301 manufacturing enterprises of the Growth Enterprise Market,there are 42 enterprises is early warned of financial crisis,in most of these enterprises belong to the low technical level of manufacturing industry,and its index such as debt paying ability,profitability are different from other enterprises.Finally,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions for guarding against the financial risk of manufacturing enterprises.